Market Analysis

Currency & Commodity Briefing

Daily USD/INR, gold, silver, crude oil and natural-gas outlook for Indian traders, importers and exporters.

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Market verdict
Rupee steady; bullion firm; energy weak

The dashboard reflects USD/INR -0.01%, Gold +1.06%, Silver +1.11%, Brent +0.31%, WTI +0.79%, Nat Gas -3.05%.

USD/INR -0.01%Gold +1.06%Silver +1.11%Brent +0.31%WTI +0.79%Nat Gas -3.05%
USD / INR (near-month future)
94.48
-0.01 (-0.01%)
Prev close
94.49
Day high
Day low
Source
NSE / Upstox
Gold
4,524.60USD/oz
47.50 (1.06%)
MCX Gold ₹/10g
1,55,701
MCX change %
2.17%
Prev close
4,477.10
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Silver
67.42USD/oz
0.74 (1.11%)
MCX Silver ₹/kg
2,36,400
MCX change %
2.81%
Gold/Silver
67.11
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Crude oil
95.82USD/bbl (Brent)
0.30 (0.31%)
WTI
91.78
MCX ₹/bbl
8,627
Brent-WTI
4.04
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Natural gas
2.92USD/MMBtu
-0.09 (-3.05%)
MCX ₹/MMBtu
276.3
MCX change %
-0.97%
Prev close
3.01
Source
Yahoo / Upstox

Cross pairs

EUR / INR
109.8696
-0.07%
GBP / INR
127.8080
0.34%
JPY / INR
0.6054
1.38%
EUR / USD
1.1600
0.04%
GBP / USD
1.3500
0.05%

Importer & exporter impact

Importer sensitivity
USD payment cost
neutral
Crude / energy cost
mildly adverse
Bullion procurement
adverse
Nat-gas cost
supportive

A ₹0.10 change in USD/INR alters a USD 1,00,000 payment by ≈ ₹10,000 before bank spreads and charges.

Exporter sensitivity
USD realisation
neutral
EUR realisation
neutral
GBP realisation
neutral

Impact reflects USD/INR direction and EUR/USD, GBP/USD cross moves. Not a hedging recommendation.

Business typeRelevant instrumentsToday's sensitivity
Oil importersBrent, WTI, USD/INRmildly adverse
AirlinesCrude oil, USD/INRmildly adverse
Paint companiesCrude derivatives, USD/INRmildly adverse
JewellersGold, Silver, USD/INRadverse
Fertiliser companiesNatural gas, USD/INRsupportive
IT exportersUSD/INRneutral
Textile exportersUSD/INR, EUR/USDneutral
Metal usersSilver, USD/INRadverse

USD / INR — detailed analysis

Near-month future
Price
94.4750
Change
-0.0127
% change
-0.01%
Prev close
94.4877
Source
NSE / Upstox
Drivers
  • USD/INR is trading lower at 94.475 (-0.01%).
  • Brent crude is higher; crude oil is broadly steady, limiting its impact on the rupee.
Technical scenarios
Current 94.48 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
94.50
Prev low
94.46
Prev close
94.49
Pivot
94.48
S1
94.47
S2
94.45
R1
94.50
R2
94.52
Sustained trading above 94.5046 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 94.4665 and 94.5046 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 94.4665 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Gold — detailed analysis

Gold/Silver ratio: 67.11
International
4,524.60
% change (intl)
1.06%
MCX Gold ₹/10g
1,55,701
MCX % change
2.17%
Prev close
4,477.10
MCX Gold Mini
1,55,400
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • International price is higher at 4524.6 (+1.06%).
  • MCX price is higher (+2.17%) — the MCX contract is trading at a premium to the international basis.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
1.06%
USD/INR contribution
-0.01%
Residual (basis / timing)
1.12%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 4,524.60 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
4,572.10
Prev low
4,429.60
Prev close
4,477.10
Pivot
4,492.93
S1
4,413.77
S2
4,350.43
R1
4,556.27
R2
4,635.43
Sustained trading above 4556.2667 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 4413.7667 and 4556.2667 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 4413.7667 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Silver — detailed analysis

Gold/Silver ratio: 67.11
International
67.42
% change (intl)
1.11%
MCX Silver ₹/kg
2,36,400
MCX % change
2.81%
Prev close
66.68
MCX Silver Mini
2,44,190
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • International price is higher at 67.42 (+1.11%).
  • MCX price is higher (+2.81%) — the MCX contract is trading at a premium to the international basis.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
1.11%
USD/INR contribution
-0.01%
Residual (basis / timing)
1.71%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 67.42 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
68.16
Prev low
65.94
Prev close
66.68
Pivot
66.93
S1
65.69
S2
64.71
R1
67.91
R2
69.15
Sustained trading above 67.9133 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 65.6933 and 67.9133 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 65.6933 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Crude oil — detailed analysis

Brent-WTI spread: 4.04 USD/bbl
Brent
95.82
Brent % change
0.31%
WTI
91.78
MCX Crude ₹/bbl
8,627
Prev close (Brent)
95.52
MCX % change
0.30%
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • Brent is higher at 95.82 USD/bbl (+0.31%).
  • WTI is higher (+0.79%), Brent-WTI spread at +4.04 USD/bbl.
  • MCX Crude is higher (+0.30%) — rupee move (USD/INR -0.01%) contributes to the local print.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
0.31%
USD/INR contribution
-0.01%
Residual (basis / timing)
0.00%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 95.82 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
96.12
Prev low
95.22
Prev close
95.52
Pivot
95.62
S1
95.12
S2
94.72
R1
96.02
R2
96.52
Sustained trading above 96.02 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 95.12 and 96.02 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 95.12 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Natural gas — detailed analysis

Henry Hub vs MCX
Henry Hub
2.920
% change (intl)
-3.05%
MCX ₹/MMBtu
276.3
MCX % change
-0.97%
Prev close (HH)
3.010
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • Henry Hub natural gas is lower at 2.92 USD/MMBtu (-3.05%).
  • MCX Natural Gas is lower (-0.97%).
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
-3.05%
USD/INR contribution
-0.01%
Residual (basis / timing)
2.10%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 2.92 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
3.10
Prev low
2.83
Prev close
3.01
Pivot
2.98
S1
2.86
S2
2.71
R1
3.13
R2
3.25
Sustained trading above 3.13 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 2.86 and 3.13 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 2.86 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Currency movement impact calculator

Illustrative only. Excludes bank spreads, forward premia, taxes and transaction charges. Not a hedging recommendation.

At current rate
₹94,47,500
At comparison rate
₹94,97,500
Additional cost
+₹50,000
Per ₹0.10 move
₹10,000
Per 1% move
₹94,475

Economic & event calendar

After Indian close
After 23:30 IST
  1. 23:30US US Non-Farm Payrolls (Aug)GoldSilverUSD/INR
Later this week
Upcoming days
  1. 23:30US US CPI (Aug)GoldSilverUSD/INR
  2. 23:30US FOMC Rate Decision + Powell Presser (SEP)All marketsGoldSilver
  3. 23:30US US Non-Farm Payrolls (Sep)GoldSilverUSD/INR
  4. 23:30US US CPI (Sep)GoldSilverUSD/INR

Key currency & commodity news

  1. Currency4 Sept 2026, 7:39 am IST
    Yen headed for strongest week in a month, dollar flat ahead of payroll data

    This week, the Japanese yen appreciated considerably against the US dollar, as traders are anticipating a potential interest rate hike from the Bank of Japan. Meanwhile, the broader currency markets are gearing up for important US payroll data releases. Federal Reserve officials

    Economic Times
  2. Currency3 Sept 2026, 6:25 pm IST
    India RBI Faces About $11 Billion Bill on Foreign Deposits Plan - bloomberg.com

    India RBI Faces About $11 Billion Bill on Foreign Deposits Plan  bloomberg.com

    Bloomberg
  3. Currency3 Sept 2026, 12:57 pm IST
    India’s Record Diaspora Inflows Swamp Banks, Test RBI Tools - bloomberg.com

    India’s Record Diaspora Inflows Swamp Banks, Test RBI Tools  bloomberg.com

    Bloomberg
  4. Energy4 Sept 2026, 7:42 am IST
    Oil Price Today (September 4): Crude oil at $96, set for a 7% weekly surge as Iran, US exchange attacks. What’s next?

    The latest US attacks, which killed and wounded dozens of people, including Iranian civilians, have resulted in the most intense clashes between the two countries since July. The conflict, which began with US-Israeli strikes at the end of February, has now entered its seventh mon

    Economic Times
  5. Energy4 Sept 2026, 7:36 am IST
    Oil set for steepest weekly gain since mid-July over intensifying US-Iran tensions

    Oil prices are on the rise, driven by escalating supply risks in the Middle East. The renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran have heightened fears regarding regional stability, resulting in violent confrontations. Concurrently, Russian President Putin is advocating for a p

    Economic Times
  6. Energy3 Sept 2026, 8:11 pm IST
    ‘Oil won’t resolve conflict’: EAM on US sanctions bill
    Economic Times
  7. Currency3 Sept 2026, 10:59 pm IST
    Star Citadel trader to step down amid tumult in energy markets

    Chris Foster to leave role at Ken Griffin’s hedge fund after making billions of dollars trading natural gas in Europe

    Financial Times

Five things to know in currency & commodities today

  1. 1
    Yen headed for strongest week in a month, dollar flat ahead of payroll data

    This week, the Japanese yen appreciated considerably against the US dollar, as traders are anticipating a potential interest rate hike from the Bank of Japan. Meanwhile, the broader currency markets are gearing up for important US payroll data releases. Federal Reserve officials

    Economic Times · 4 Sept 2026, 7:39 am IST
  2. 2
    India RBI Faces About $11 Billion Bill on Foreign Deposits Plan - bloomberg.com

    India RBI Faces About $11 Billion Bill on Foreign Deposits Plan  bloomberg.com

    Bloomberg · 3 Sept 2026, 6:25 pm IST
  3. 3
    India’s Record Diaspora Inflows Swamp Banks, Test RBI Tools - bloomberg.com

    India’s Record Diaspora Inflows Swamp Banks, Test RBI Tools  bloomberg.com

    Bloomberg · 3 Sept 2026, 12:57 pm IST
  4. 4
    Oil Price Today (September 4): Crude oil at $96, set for a 7% weekly surge as Iran, US exchange attacks. What’s next?

    The latest US attacks, which killed and wounded dozens of people, including Iranian civilians, have resulted in the most intense clashes between the two countries since July. The conflict, which began with US-Israeli strikes at the end of February, has now entered its seventh mon

    Economic Times · 4 Sept 2026, 7:42 am IST
  5. 5
    Oil set for steepest weekly gain since mid-July over intensifying US-Iran tensions

    Oil prices are on the rise, driven by escalating supply risks in the Middle East. The renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran have heightened fears regarding regional stability, resulting in violent confrontations. Concurrently, Russian President Putin is advocating for a p

    Economic Times · 4 Sept 2026, 7:36 am IST

Previous Currency & Commodity Briefings

Daily 08:00 IST snapshots — permanent archive links.