Market Analysis

Currency & Commodity Briefing

Daily USD/INR, gold, silver, crude oil and natural-gas outlook for Indian traders, importers and exporters.

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Market verdict
Rupee mildly firm; bullion under pressure; energy firm

The dashboard reflects USD/INR -0.18%, Gold -1.05%, Silver -1.48%, Brent +1.13%, WTI +0.85%, Nat Gas +1.79%.

USD/INR -0.18%Gold -1.05%Silver -1.48%Brent +1.13%WTI +0.85%Nat Gas +1.79%
USD / INR (near-month future)
94.94
-0.17 (-0.18%)
Prev close
95.11
Day high
Day low
Source
NSE / Upstox
Gold
4,350.40USD/oz
-46.00 (-1.05%)
MCX Gold ₹/10g
1,51,699
MCX change %
-1.79%
Prev close
4,396.40
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Silver
64.40USD/oz
-0.97 (-1.48%)
MCX Silver ₹/kg
2,28,993
MCX change %
-2.07%
Gold/Silver
67.55
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Crude oil
95.72USD/bbl (Brent)
1.07 (1.13%)
WTI
90.99
MCX ₹/bbl
8,533
Brent-WTI
4.73
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Natural gas
2.96USD/MMBtu
0.05 (1.79%)
MCX ₹/MMBtu
277.6
MCX change %
-0.89%
Prev close
2.90
Source
Yahoo / Upstox

Cross pairs

EUR / INR
109.9730
-0.46%
GBP / INR
128.2083
-0.50%
JPY / INR
0.5922
-0.52%
EUR / USD
1.1600
-0.28%
GBP / USD
1.3500
-0.32%

Importer & exporter impact

Importer sensitivity
USD payment cost
mildly supportive
Crude / energy cost
adverse
Bullion procurement
supportive
Nat-gas cost
adverse

A ₹0.10 change in USD/INR alters a USD 1,00,000 payment by ≈ ₹10,000 before bank spreads and charges.

Exporter sensitivity
USD realisation
mildly adverse
EUR realisation
mildly adverse
GBP realisation
mildly adverse

Impact reflects USD/INR direction and EUR/USD, GBP/USD cross moves. Not a hedging recommendation.

Business typeRelevant instrumentsToday's sensitivity
Oil importersBrent, WTI, USD/INRadverse
AirlinesCrude oil, USD/INRadverse
Paint companiesCrude derivatives, USD/INRadverse
JewellersGold, Silver, USD/INRsupportive
Fertiliser companiesNatural gas, USD/INRadverse
IT exportersUSD/INRmildly adverse
Textile exportersUSD/INR, EUR/USDmildly adverse
Metal usersSilver, USD/INRsupportive

USD / INR — detailed analysis

Near-month future
Price
94.9400
Change
-0.1744
% change
-0.18%
Prev close
95.1144
Source
NSE / Upstox
Drivers
  • USD/INR is trading lower at 94.94 (-0.18%).
  • Brent crude is higher; elevated crude prices weigh on the rupee.
Technical scenarios
Current 94.94 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
95.29
Prev low
94.77
Prev close
95.11
Pivot
95.06
S1
94.82
S2
94.53
R1
95.35
R2
95.58
Sustained trading above 95.3469 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 94.8237 and 95.3469 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 94.8237 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Gold — detailed analysis

Gold/Silver ratio: 67.55
International
4,350.40
% change (intl)
-1.05%
MCX Gold ₹/10g
1,51,699
MCX % change
-1.79%
Prev close
4,396.40
MCX Gold Mini
1,51,395
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • International price is lower at 4350.4 (-1.05%).
  • MCX price is lower (-1.79%) — the MCX contract is trading at a discount to the international basis.
  • A lower rupee (-0.18%) is weighing on the rupee-denominated MCX print.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
-1.05%
USD/INR contribution
-0.18%
Residual (basis / timing)
-0.56%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 4,350.40 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
4,442.40
Prev low
4,304.40
Prev close
4,396.40
Pivot
4,381.07
S1
4,319.73
S2
4,243.07
R1
4,457.73
R2
4,519.07
Sustained trading above 4457.7333 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 4319.7333 and 4457.7333 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 4319.7333 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Silver — detailed analysis

Gold/Silver ratio: 67.55
International
64.40
% change (intl)
-1.48%
MCX Silver ₹/kg
2,28,993
MCX % change
-2.07%
Prev close
65.37
MCX Silver Mini
2,37,460
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • International price is lower at 64.4 (-1.48%).
  • MCX price is lower (-2.07%) — the MCX contract is trading at a discount to the international basis.
  • A lower rupee (-0.18%) is weighing on the rupee-denominated MCX print.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
-1.48%
USD/INR contribution
-0.18%
Residual (basis / timing)
-0.41%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 64.40 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
66.34
Prev low
63.43
Prev close
65.37
Pivot
65.05
S1
63.75
S2
62.14
R1
66.66
R2
67.96
Sustained trading above 66.6633 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 63.7533 and 66.6633 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 63.7533 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Crude oil — detailed analysis

Brent-WTI spread: 4.73 USD/bbl
Brent
95.72
Brent % change
1.13%
WTI
90.99
MCX Crude ₹/bbl
8,533
Prev close (Brent)
94.65
MCX % change
-0.04%
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • Brent is higher at 95.72 USD/bbl (+1.13%).
  • WTI is higher (+0.85%), Brent-WTI spread at +4.73 USD/bbl.
  • MCX Crude is lower (-0.04%) — rupee move (USD/INR -0.18%) contributes to the local print.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
1.13%
USD/INR contribution
-0.18%
Residual (basis / timing)
-0.98%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 95.72 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
96.79
Prev low
93.58
Prev close
94.65
Pivot
95.01
S1
93.22
S2
91.80
R1
96.43
R2
98.22
Sustained trading above 96.4333 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 93.2233 and 96.4333 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 93.2233 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Natural gas — detailed analysis

Henry Hub vs MCX
Henry Hub
2.960
% change (intl)
1.79%
MCX ₹/MMBtu
277.6
MCX % change
-0.89%
Prev close (HH)
2.900
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • Henry Hub natural gas is higher at 2.96 USD/MMBtu (+1.79%).
  • MCX Natural Gas is lower (-0.89%).
  • USD/INR -0.18% is a headwind for the rupee-denominated contract.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
1.79%
USD/INR contribution
-0.18%
Residual (basis / timing)
-2.50%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 2.96 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
3.02
Prev low
2.84
Prev close
2.90
Pivot
2.92
S1
2.82
S2
2.74
R1
3.00
R2
3.10
Sustained trading above 3.0 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 2.82 and 3.0 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 2.82 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Currency movement impact calculator

Illustrative only. Excludes bank spreads, forward premia, taxes and transaction charges. Not a hedging recommendation.

At current rate
₹94,94,000
At comparison rate
₹95,44,000
Additional cost
+₹50,000
Per ₹0.10 move
₹10,000
Per 1% move
₹94,940

Economic & event calendar

Later this week
Upcoming days
  1. 23:30US US Non-Farm Payrolls (Aug)GoldSilverUSD/INR
  2. 23:30US US CPI (Aug)GoldSilverUSD/INR
  3. 23:30US FOMC Rate Decision + Powell Presser (SEP)All marketsGoldSilver
  4. 23:30US US Non-Farm Payrolls (Sep)GoldSilverUSD/INR
  5. 23:30US US CPI (Sep)GoldSilverUSD/INR

Key currency & commodity news

  1. Central Banks2 Sept 2026, 1:30 am IST
    Warsh and peace

    Bond yields keep rising after the Fed chair’s Jackson Hole speech

    Financial Times
  2. Currency1 Sept 2026, 5:03 pm IST
    RBI intervention, dollar flows push Indian rupee to two-month peak - Reuters

    RBI intervention, dollar flows push Indian rupee to two-month peak  Reuters

    Reuters
  3. Energy2 Sept 2026, 7:44 am IST
    Oil Price Today (September 2): Crude oil nears $97 as war tensions escalate. Will it hit $100 again?

    The United States said it carried out a series of airstrikes against targets in Iran overnight, drawing a response from Tehran in what was described as the most serious escalation in the conflict between the two countries in weeks.

    Economic Times
  4. Economic Data2 Sept 2026, 2:48 am IST
    US diesel prices soar as Trump hauls in refiners

    President holds White House meeting as fresh escalation in his Iran war threatens new inflationary spiral

    Financial Times
  5. Energy2 Sept 2026, 1:29 am IST
    US launches further strikes on Iran as conflict flares up

    Escalation pushes oil prices higher and sends Treasury yields to day’s highs as investors fret over new bout of inflation

    Financial Times
  6. Geopolitics1 Sept 2026, 10:00 pm IST
    'Most Americans oppose Trump's Canada tariffs'
    Economic Times

Five things to know in currency & commodities today

  1. 1
    Warsh and peace

    Bond yields keep rising after the Fed chair’s Jackson Hole speech

    Financial Times · 2 Sept 2026, 1:30 am IST
  2. 2
    RBI intervention, dollar flows push Indian rupee to two-month peak - Reuters

    RBI intervention, dollar flows push Indian rupee to two-month peak  Reuters

    Reuters · 1 Sept 2026, 5:03 pm IST
  3. 3
    Oil Price Today (September 2): Crude oil nears $97 as war tensions escalate. Will it hit $100 again?

    The United States said it carried out a series of airstrikes against targets in Iran overnight, drawing a response from Tehran in what was described as the most serious escalation in the conflict between the two countries in weeks.

    Economic Times · 2 Sept 2026, 7:44 am IST
  4. 4
    US diesel prices soar as Trump hauls in refiners

    President holds White House meeting as fresh escalation in his Iran war threatens new inflationary spiral

    Financial Times · 2 Sept 2026, 2:48 am IST
  5. 5
    US launches further strikes on Iran as conflict flares up

    Escalation pushes oil prices higher and sends Treasury yields to day’s highs as investors fret over new bout of inflation

    Financial Times · 2 Sept 2026, 1:29 am IST

Previous Currency & Commodity Briefings

Daily 08:00 IST snapshots — permanent archive links.