Market Analysis

Currency & Commodity Briefing

Daily USD/INR, gold, silver, crude oil and natural-gas outlook for Indian traders, importers and exporters.

Data as of Powered by liveworldmarket.com
View
Preference stored in this browser
Market verdict
Rupee mildly firm; bullion mildly weak; energy firm

The dashboard reflects USD/INR -0.12%, Gold -0.74%, Silver -0.70%, Brent +2.53%, WTI +2.35%, Nat Gas -0.62%.

USD/INR -0.12%Gold -0.74%Silver -0.70%Brent +2.53%WTI +2.35%Nat Gas -0.62%
USD / INR (near-month future)
95.36
-0.11 (-0.12%)
Prev close
95.47
Day high
Day low
Source
NSE / Upstox
Gold
4,470.80USD/oz
-33.30 (-0.74%)
MCX Gold ₹/10g
1,56,250
MCX change %
-1.73%
Prev close
4,504.10
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Silver
66.62USD/oz
-0.47 (-0.70%)
MCX Silver ₹/kg
2,36,651
MCX change %
-1.66%
Gold/Silver
67.11
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Crude oil
90.33USD/bbl (Brent)
2.23 (2.53%)
WTI
85.36
MCX ₹/bbl
7,987
Brent-WTI
4.97
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Natural gas
2.87USD/MMBtu
-0.02 (-0.62%)
MCX ₹/MMBtu
275.8
MCX change %
-0.11%
Prev close
2.89
Source
Yahoo / Upstox

Cross pairs

EUR / INR
110.5762
-0.51%
GBP / INR
129.1538
-0.51%
JPY / INR
0.5968
-0.34%
EUR / USD
1.1600
0.07%
GBP / USD
1.3500
0.06%

Importer & exporter impact

Importer sensitivity
USD payment cost
neutral
Crude / energy cost
adverse
Bullion procurement
supportive
Nat-gas cost
supportive

A ₹0.10 change in USD/INR alters a USD 1,00,000 payment by ≈ ₹10,000 before bank spreads and charges.

Exporter sensitivity
USD realisation
neutral
EUR realisation
neutral
GBP realisation
neutral

Impact reflects USD/INR direction and EUR/USD, GBP/USD cross moves. Not a hedging recommendation.

Business typeRelevant instrumentsToday's sensitivity
Oil importersBrent, WTI, USD/INRadverse
AirlinesCrude oil, USD/INRadverse
Paint companiesCrude derivatives, USD/INRadverse
JewellersGold, Silver, USD/INRsupportive
Fertiliser companiesNatural gas, USD/INRsupportive
IT exportersUSD/INRneutral
Textile exportersUSD/INR, EUR/USDneutral
Metal usersSilver, USD/INRsupportive

USD / INR — detailed analysis

Near-month future
Price
95.3600
Change
-0.1104
% change
-0.12%
Prev close
95.4704
Source
NSE / Upstox
Drivers
  • USD/INR is trading lower at 95.36 (-0.12%).
  • Brent crude is higher; elevated crude prices weigh on the rupee.
Technical scenarios
Current 95.36 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
95.58
Prev low
95.25
Prev close
95.47
Pivot
95.43
S1
95.29
S2
95.10
R1
95.62
R2
95.76
Sustained trading above 95.6176 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 95.2864 and 95.6176 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 95.2864 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Gold — detailed analysis

Gold/Silver ratio: 67.11
International
4,470.80
% change (intl)
-0.74%
MCX Gold ₹/10g
1,56,250
MCX % change
-1.73%
Prev close
4,504.10
MCX Gold Mini
1,55,999
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • International price is lower at 4470.8 (-0.74%).
  • MCX price is lower (-1.73%) — the MCX contract is trading at a discount to the international basis.
  • A lower rupee (-0.12%) is weighing on the rupee-denominated MCX print.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
-0.74%
USD/INR contribution
-0.12%
Residual (basis / timing)
-0.87%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 4,470.80 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
4,537.40
Prev low
4,437.50
Prev close
4,504.10
Pivot
4,493.00
S1
4,448.60
S2
4,393.10
R1
4,548.50
R2
4,592.90
Sustained trading above 4548.5 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 4448.6 and 4548.5 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 4448.6 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Silver — detailed analysis

Gold/Silver ratio: 67.11
International
66.62
% change (intl)
-0.70%
MCX Silver ₹/kg
2,36,651
MCX % change
-1.66%
Prev close
67.09
MCX Silver Mini
2,38,435
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • International price is lower at 66.62 (-0.70%).
  • MCX price is lower (-1.66%) — the MCX contract is trading at a discount to the international basis.
  • A lower rupee (-0.12%) is weighing on the rupee-denominated MCX print.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
-0.70%
USD/INR contribution
-0.12%
Residual (basis / timing)
-0.85%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 66.62 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
67.56
Prev low
66.15
Prev close
67.09
Pivot
66.93
S1
66.31
S2
65.52
R1
67.72
R2
68.34
Sustained trading above 67.7167 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 66.3067 and 67.7167 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 66.3067 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Crude oil — detailed analysis

Brent-WTI spread: 4.97 USD/bbl
Brent
90.33
Brent % change
2.53%
WTI
85.36
MCX Crude ₹/bbl
7,987
Prev close (Brent)
88.10
MCX % change
0.29%
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • Brent is higher at 90.33 USD/bbl (+2.53%).
  • WTI is higher (+2.35%), Brent-WTI spread at +4.97 USD/bbl.
  • MCX Crude is higher (+0.29%) — rupee move (USD/INR -0.12%) contributes to the local print.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
2.53%
USD/INR contribution
-0.12%
Residual (basis / timing)
-2.13%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 90.33 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
92.56
Prev low
85.87
Prev close
88.10
Pivot
88.84
S1
85.13
S2
82.15
R1
91.82
R2
95.53
Sustained trading above 91.8167 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 85.1267 and 91.8167 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 85.1267 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Natural gas — detailed analysis

Henry Hub vs MCX
Henry Hub
2.870
% change (intl)
-0.62%
MCX ₹/MMBtu
275.8
MCX % change
-0.11%
Prev close (HH)
2.890
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • Henry Hub natural gas is lower at 2.87 USD/MMBtu (-0.62%).
  • MCX Natural Gas is lower (-0.11%).
  • USD/INR -0.12% is a headwind for the rupee-denominated contract.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
-0.62%
USD/INR contribution
-0.12%
Residual (basis / timing)
0.63%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 2.87 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
2.91
Prev low
2.85
Prev close
2.89
Pivot
2.88
S1
2.86
S2
2.82
R1
2.92
R2
2.94
Sustained trading above 2.9167 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 2.8567 and 2.9167 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 2.8567 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Currency movement impact calculator

Illustrative only. Excludes bank spreads, forward premia, taxes and transaction charges. Not a hedging recommendation.

At current rate
₹95,36,000
At comparison rate
₹95,86,000
Additional cost
+₹50,000
Per ₹0.10 move
₹10,000
Per 1% move
₹95,360

Economic & event calendar

Later this week
Upcoming days
  1. 23:30US US Non-Farm Payrolls (Aug)GoldSilverUSD/INR
  2. 23:30US US CPI (Aug)GoldSilverUSD/INR
  3. 23:30US FOMC Rate Decision + Powell Presser (SEP)All marketsGoldSilver
  4. 23:30US US Non-Farm Payrolls (Sep)GoldSilverUSD/INR
  5. 23:30US US CPI (Sep)GoldSilverUSD/INR

Key currency & commodity news

  1. Bullion31 Aug 2026, 7:30 am IST
    Gold holds ground after 3% drop on Warsh's hawkish stance

    On Monday, gold prices held steady following a noteworthy decline. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh suggested that interest rate hikes could be on the horizon, leading markets to predict an increased chance of a September rate rise. Labor market reports set to be released this w

    Economic Times
  2. Currency31 Aug 2026, 7:32 am IST
    Dollar near two-week high as Warsh boosts rate-hike bets; yen slips past 160

    On Monday, the dollar maintained its strength close to a two-week peak, fueled by expectations of a rate hike in September following assertive comments from the Fed. Meanwhile, the yen fell past the crucial 160-per-dollar threshold, raising concerns about possible intervention. A

    Economic Times
  3. Currency31 Aug 2026, 6:37 am IST
    Short-term rates ease as banks see surge in dollar deposits

    Large banks secured significant dollar deposits, easing short-term borrowing costs for smaller institutions. This influx of funds has boosted banking system liquidity considerably in recent months. However, longer-term borrowing costs are hardening due to hawkish monetary polic

    Economic Times
  4. Energy30 Aug 2026, 7:50 pm IST
    Trump wants Venezuela’s oil to fill US empty vault
    Economic Times
  5. Energy30 Aug 2026, 5:42 pm IST
    Controversial Venezuelan executive courts investors after Trump oil deal

    Alejandro Betancourt is the US’s primary partner in a company that will control more than 65bn barrels of oil reserves

    Financial Times

Five things to know in currency & commodities today

  1. 1
    Gold holds ground after 3% drop on Warsh's hawkish stance

    On Monday, gold prices held steady following a noteworthy decline. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh suggested that interest rate hikes could be on the horizon, leading markets to predict an increased chance of a September rate rise. Labor market reports set to be released this w

    Economic Times · 31 Aug 2026, 7:30 am IST
  2. 2
    Dollar near two-week high as Warsh boosts rate-hike bets; yen slips past 160

    On Monday, the dollar maintained its strength close to a two-week peak, fueled by expectations of a rate hike in September following assertive comments from the Fed. Meanwhile, the yen fell past the crucial 160-per-dollar threshold, raising concerns about possible intervention. A

    Economic Times · 31 Aug 2026, 7:32 am IST
  3. 3
    Short-term rates ease as banks see surge in dollar deposits

    Large banks secured significant dollar deposits, easing short-term borrowing costs for smaller institutions. This influx of funds has boosted banking system liquidity considerably in recent months. However, longer-term borrowing costs are hardening due to hawkish monetary polic

    Economic Times · 31 Aug 2026, 6:37 am IST
  4. 4
    Trump wants Venezuela’s oil to fill US empty vault
    Economic Times · 30 Aug 2026, 7:50 pm IST
  5. 5
    Controversial Venezuelan executive courts investors after Trump oil deal

    Alejandro Betancourt is the US’s primary partner in a company that will control more than 65bn barrels of oil reserves

    Financial Times · 30 Aug 2026, 5:42 pm IST

Previous Currency & Commodity Briefings

Daily 08:00 IST snapshots — permanent archive links.