Market Analysis

Currency & Commodity Briefing

Daily USD/INR, gold, silver, crude oil and natural-gas outlook for Indian traders, importers and exporters.

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Market verdict
Rupee steady; bullion steady; energy weak

The dashboard reflects USD/INR -0.02%, Gold +0.60%, Silver -0.40%, Brent -1.81%, WTI -1.94%, Nat Gas -1.49%.

USD/INR -0.02%Gold +0.60%Silver -0.40%Brent -1.81%WTI -1.94%Nat Gas -1.49%
USD / INR (near-month future)
95.64
-0.02 (-0.02%)
Prev close
95.66
Day high
Day low
Source
NSE / Upstox
Gold
4,708.70USD/oz
28.10 (0.60%)
MCX Gold ₹/10g
1,62,440
MCX change %
1.89%
Prev close
4,680.60
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Silver
69.25USD/oz
-0.28 (-0.40%)
MCX Silver ₹/kg
2,46,360
MCX change %
1.28%
Gold/Silver
68.00
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Crude oil
92.68USD/bbl (Brent)
-1.71 (-1.81%)
WTI
85.37
MCX ₹/bbl
8,363
Brent-WTI
7.31
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Natural gas
2.77USD/MMBtu
-0.04 (-1.49%)
MCX ₹/MMBtu
264.4
MCX change %
1.26%
Prev close
2.81
Source
Yahoo / Upstox

Cross pairs

EUR / INR
111.9600
0.08%
GBP / INR
130.8800
0.21%
JPY / INR
60.2000
0.33%
EUR / USD
1.1700
0.07%
GBP / USD
1.3700
0.02%

Importer & exporter impact

Importer sensitivity
USD payment cost
neutral
Crude / energy cost
supportive
Bullion procurement
adverse
Nat-gas cost
supportive

A ₹0.10 change in USD/INR alters a USD 1,00,000 payment by ≈ ₹10,000 before bank spreads and charges.

Exporter sensitivity
USD realisation
neutral
EUR realisation
neutral
GBP realisation
neutral

Impact reflects USD/INR direction and EUR/USD, GBP/USD cross moves. Not a hedging recommendation.

Business typeRelevant instrumentsToday's sensitivity
Oil importersBrent, WTI, USD/INRsupportive
AirlinesCrude oil, USD/INRsupportive
Paint companiesCrude derivatives, USD/INRsupportive
JewellersGold, Silver, USD/INRadverse
Fertiliser companiesNatural gas, USD/INRsupportive
IT exportersUSD/INRneutral
Textile exportersUSD/INR, EUR/USDneutral
Metal usersSilver, USD/INRadverse

USD / INR — detailed analysis

Near-month future
Price
95.6400
Change
-0.0200
% change
-0.02%
Prev close
95.6600
Source
NSE / Upstox
Drivers
  • USD/INR is trading lower at 95.64 (-0.02%).
  • Brent crude is lower; softer crude prices are broadly rupee-supportive.
Technical scenarios
Current 95.64 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
95.68
Prev low
95.62
Prev close
95.66
Pivot
95.65
S1
95.63
S2
95.59
R1
95.69
R2
95.71
Sustained trading above 95.6867 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 95.6267 and 95.6867 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 95.6267 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Gold — detailed analysis

Gold/Silver ratio: 68
International
4,708.70
% change (intl)
0.60%
MCX Gold ₹/10g
1,62,440
MCX % change
1.89%
Prev close
4,680.60
MCX Gold Mini
1,61,000
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • International price is higher at 4708.7 (+0.60%).
  • MCX price is higher (+1.89%) — the MCX contract is trading at a premium to the international basis.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
0.60%
USD/INR contribution
-0.02%
Residual (basis / timing)
1.31%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 4,708.70 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
4,736.80
Prev low
4,652.50
Prev close
4,680.60
Pivot
4,689.97
S1
4,643.13
S2
4,605.67
R1
4,727.43
R2
4,774.27
Sustained trading above 4727.4333 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 4643.1333 and 4727.4333 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 4643.1333 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Silver — detailed analysis

Gold/Silver ratio: 68
International
69.25
% change (intl)
-0.40%
MCX Silver ₹/kg
2,46,360
MCX % change
1.28%
Prev close
69.53
MCX Silver Mini
2,47,855
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • International price is lower at 69.25 (-0.40%).
  • MCX price is higher (+1.28%) — the MCX contract is trading at a premium to the international basis.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
-0.40%
USD/INR contribution
-0.02%
Residual (basis / timing)
1.71%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 69.25 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
69.81
Prev low
68.97
Prev close
69.53
Pivot
69.44
S1
69.06
S2
68.60
R1
69.90
R2
70.28
Sustained trading above 69.9033 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 69.0633 and 69.9033 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 69.0633 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Crude oil — detailed analysis

Brent-WTI spread: 7.31 USD/bbl
Brent
92.68
Brent % change
-1.81%
WTI
85.37
MCX Crude ₹/bbl
8,363
Prev close (Brent)
94.39
MCX % change
0.71%
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • Brent is lower at 92.68 USD/bbl (-1.81%).
  • WTI is lower (-1.94%), Brent-WTI spread at +7.31 USD/bbl.
  • MCX Crude is higher (+0.71%) — rupee move (USD/INR -0.02%) contributes to the local print.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
-1.81%
USD/INR contribution
-0.02%
Residual (basis / timing)
2.54%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 92.68 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
96.10
Prev low
90.97
Prev close
94.39
Pivot
93.82
S1
91.54
S2
88.69
R1
96.67
R2
98.95
Sustained trading above 96.67 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 91.54 and 96.67 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 91.54 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Natural gas — detailed analysis

Henry Hub vs MCX
Henry Hub
2.770
% change (intl)
-1.49%
MCX ₹/MMBtu
264.4
MCX % change
1.26%
Prev close (HH)
2.810
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • Henry Hub natural gas is lower at 2.77 USD/MMBtu (-1.49%).
  • MCX Natural Gas is higher (+1.26%).
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
-1.49%
USD/INR contribution
-0.02%
Residual (basis / timing)
2.78%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 2.77 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
2.85
Prev low
2.73
Prev close
2.81
Pivot
2.80
S1
2.74
S2
2.68
R1
2.86
R2
2.92
Sustained trading above 2.8633 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 2.7433 and 2.8633 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 2.7433 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Currency movement impact calculator

Illustrative only. Excludes bank spreads, forward premia, taxes and transaction charges. Not a hedging recommendation.

At current rate
₹95,64,000
At comparison rate
₹96,14,000
Additional cost
+₹50,000
Per ₹0.10 move
₹10,000
Per 1% move
₹95,640

Economic & event calendar

Later this week
Upcoming days
  1. 23:30US US Non-Farm Payrolls (Aug)GoldSilverUSD/INR
  2. 23:30US US CPI (Aug)GoldSilverUSD/INR
  3. 23:30US FOMC Rate Decision + Powell Presser (SEP)All marketsGoldSilver
  4. 23:30US US Non-Farm Payrolls (Sep)GoldSilverUSD/INR

Key currency & commodity news

  1. Bullion24 Aug 2026, 7:28 am IST
    Gold hits over three-month high ahead of US inflation data, Fed chair speech

    Gold prices have surged to a three-month high, driven by investor anticipation for upcoming US inflation data. The speech by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is also a focal point, likely influencing interest rate outlooks. Furthermore, Poland's central bank has expanded its gol

    Economic Times
  2. Energy23 Aug 2026, 3:30 pm IST
    Occidental tries to free itself from the messy legacy of Anadarko deal

    Oil and gas group charts a steadier course seven years after Vicki Hollub’s notorious Berkshire-backed acquisition

    Financial Times
  3. Currency24 Aug 2026, 7:30 am IST
    Dollar trading near multi-month lows, restrained by debt nerves

    The dollar is facing significant weakness, hovering close to multi-month lows as market participants await crucial details on sanctions and upcoming policy speeches. Canada's dollar dipped following a halt in trade negotiations, along with imposing tariffs from both sides. In con

    Economic Times
  4. Energy24 Aug 2026, 7:26 am IST
    Oil falls ahead of US announcement on new Iran sanctions

    Oil prices experienced a decline as investors braced for impending U.S. sanctions aimed at Iran. With these sanctions likely to create further disruptions in oil supply routes across the Middle East, anticipation builds. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is poised to unveil t

    Economic Times
  5. Geopolitics24 Aug 2026, 7:16 am IST
    Iran warns US sanctions backers of ‘act of war’
    Economic Times
  6. Energy21 Aug 2026, 8:22 pm IST
    India Buys Its Most Expensive LNG in Years as War Upends Market - Bloomberg.com

    India Buys Its Most Expensive LNG in Years as War Upends Market  Bloomberg.com

    Bloomberg
  7. Energy23 Aug 2026, 9:30 am IST
    India’s reliance on Russian oil hits all-time high

    Middle East conflict exposes New Delhi’s energy security vulnerabilities

    Financial Times

Five things to know in currency & commodities today

  1. 1
    Gold hits over three-month high ahead of US inflation data, Fed chair speech

    Gold prices have surged to a three-month high, driven by investor anticipation for upcoming US inflation data. The speech by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is also a focal point, likely influencing interest rate outlooks. Furthermore, Poland's central bank has expanded its gol

    Economic Times · 24 Aug 2026, 7:28 am IST
  2. 2
    Occidental tries to free itself from the messy legacy of Anadarko deal

    Oil and gas group charts a steadier course seven years after Vicki Hollub’s notorious Berkshire-backed acquisition

    Financial Times · 23 Aug 2026, 3:30 pm IST
  3. 3
    Dollar trading near multi-month lows, restrained by debt nerves

    The dollar is facing significant weakness, hovering close to multi-month lows as market participants await crucial details on sanctions and upcoming policy speeches. Canada's dollar dipped following a halt in trade negotiations, along with imposing tariffs from both sides. In con

    Economic Times · 24 Aug 2026, 7:30 am IST
  4. 4
    Oil falls ahead of US announcement on new Iran sanctions

    Oil prices experienced a decline as investors braced for impending U.S. sanctions aimed at Iran. With these sanctions likely to create further disruptions in oil supply routes across the Middle East, anticipation builds. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is poised to unveil t

    Economic Times · 24 Aug 2026, 7:26 am IST
  5. 5
    Iran warns US sanctions backers of ‘act of war’
    Economic Times · 24 Aug 2026, 7:16 am IST

Previous Currency & Commodity Briefings

Daily 08:00 IST snapshots — permanent archive links.