Market Analysis

Currency & Commodity Briefing

Daily USD/INR, gold, silver, crude oil and natural-gas outlook for Indian traders, importers and exporters.

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Market verdict
Rupee steady; bullion under pressure; energy firm

The dashboard reflects USD/INR -0.03%, Gold -0.10%, Silver -4.32%, Brent +1.06%, WTI +0.45%, Nat Gas +3.35%.

USD/INR -0.03%Gold -0.10%Silver -4.32%Brent +1.06%WTI +0.45%Nat Gas +3.35%
USD / INR (near-month future)
95.67
-0.02 (-0.03%)
Prev close
95.69
Day high
Day low
Source
NSE / Upstox
Gold
4,413.20USD/oz
-4.60 (-0.10%)
MCX Gold ₹/10g
1,54,281
MCX change %
-1.06%
Prev close
4,417.80
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Silver
63.26USD/oz
-2.86 (-4.32%)
MCX Silver ₹/kg
2,32,261
MCX change %
-2.43%
Gold/Silver
69.76
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Crude oil
91.83USD/bbl (Brent)
0.96 (1.06%)
WTI
84.88
MCX ₹/bbl
8,129
Brent-WTI
6.95
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Natural gas
2.78USD/MMBtu
0.09 (3.35%)
MCX ₹/MMBtu
265.2
MCX change %
2.83%
Prev close
2.69
Source
Yahoo / Upstox

Cross pairs

EUR / INR
110.8346
0.17%
GBP / INR
129.4866
0.22%
JPY / INR
0.6002
0.11%
EUR / USD
1.1600
0.02%
GBP / USD
1.3500
-0.10%

Importer & exporter impact

Importer sensitivity
USD payment cost
neutral
Crude / energy cost
adverse
Bullion procurement
neutral
Nat-gas cost
adverse

A ₹0.10 change in USD/INR alters a USD 1,00,000 payment by ≈ ₹10,000 before bank spreads and charges.

Exporter sensitivity
USD realisation
neutral
EUR realisation
neutral
GBP realisation
neutral

Impact reflects USD/INR direction and EUR/USD, GBP/USD cross moves. Not a hedging recommendation.

Business typeRelevant instrumentsToday's sensitivity
Oil importersBrent, WTI, USD/INRadverse
AirlinesCrude oil, USD/INRadverse
Paint companiesCrude derivatives, USD/INRadverse
JewellersGold, Silver, USD/INRneutral
Fertiliser companiesNatural gas, USD/INRadverse
IT exportersUSD/INRneutral
Textile exportersUSD/INR, EUR/USDneutral
Metal usersSilver, USD/INRneutral

USD / INR — detailed analysis

Near-month future
Price
95.6700
Change
-0.0241
% change
-0.03%
Prev close
95.6941
Source
NSE / Upstox
Drivers
  • USD/INR is trading lower at 95.67 (-0.03%).
  • Brent crude is higher; elevated crude prices weigh on the rupee.
Technical scenarios
Current 95.67 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
95.72
Prev low
95.65
Prev close
95.69
Pivot
95.69
S1
95.65
S2
95.61
R1
95.73
R2
95.76
Sustained trading above 95.7262 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 95.6539 and 95.7262 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 95.6539 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Gold — detailed analysis

Gold/Silver ratio: 69.76
International
4,413.20
% change (intl)
-0.10%
MCX Gold ₹/10g
1,54,281
MCX % change
-1.06%
Prev close
4,417.80
MCX Gold Mini
1,53,015
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • International price is lower at 4413.2 (-0.10%).
  • MCX price is lower (-1.06%) — the MCX contract is trading at a discount to the international basis.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
-0.10%
USD/INR contribution
-0.03%
Residual (basis / timing)
-0.94%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 4,413.20 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
4,422.40
Prev low
4,408.60
Prev close
4,417.80
Pivot
4,416.27
S1
4,410.13
S2
4,402.47
R1
4,423.93
R2
4,430.07
Sustained trading above 4423.9333 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 4410.1333 and 4423.9333 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 4410.1333 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Silver — detailed analysis

Gold/Silver ratio: 69.76
International
63.26
% change (intl)
-4.32%
MCX Silver ₹/kg
2,32,261
MCX % change
-2.43%
Prev close
66.12
MCX Silver Mini
2,33,814
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • International price is lower at 63.26 (-4.32%).
  • MCX price is lower (-2.43%) — the MCX contract is trading at a premium to the international basis.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
-4.32%
USD/INR contribution
-0.03%
Residual (basis / timing)
1.91%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 63.26 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
68.98
Prev low
60.40
Prev close
66.12
Pivot
65.17
S1
61.35
S2
56.59
R1
69.93
R2
73.75
Sustained trading above 69.9333 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 61.3533 and 69.9333 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 61.3533 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Crude oil — detailed analysis

Brent-WTI spread: 6.95 USD/bbl
Brent
91.83
Brent % change
1.06%
WTI
84.88
MCX Crude ₹/bbl
8,129
Prev close (Brent)
90.87
MCX % change
0.82%
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • Brent is higher at 91.83 USD/bbl (+1.06%).
  • WTI is higher (+0.45%), Brent-WTI spread at +6.95 USD/bbl.
  • MCX Crude is higher (+0.82%) — rupee move (USD/INR -0.03%) contributes to the local print.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
1.06%
USD/INR contribution
-0.03%
Residual (basis / timing)
-0.21%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 91.83 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
92.79
Prev low
89.91
Prev close
90.87
Pivot
91.19
S1
89.59
S2
88.31
R1
92.47
R2
94.07
Sustained trading above 92.47 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 89.59 and 92.47 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 89.59 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Natural gas — detailed analysis

Henry Hub vs MCX
Henry Hub
2.780
% change (intl)
3.35%
MCX ₹/MMBtu
265.2
MCX % change
2.83%
Prev close (HH)
2.690
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • Henry Hub natural gas is higher at 2.78 USD/MMBtu (+3.35%).
  • MCX Natural Gas is higher (+2.83%).
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
3.35%
USD/INR contribution
-0.03%
Residual (basis / timing)
-0.49%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 2.78 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
2.87
Prev low
2.60
Prev close
2.69
Pivot
2.72
S1
2.57
S2
2.45
R1
2.84
R2
2.99
Sustained trading above 2.84 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 2.57 and 2.84 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 2.57 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Currency movement impact calculator

Illustrative only. Excludes bank spreads, forward premia, taxes and transaction charges. Not a hedging recommendation.

At current rate
₹95,67,000
At comparison rate
₹96,17,000
Additional cost
+₹50,000
Per ₹0.10 move
₹10,000
Per 1% move
₹95,670

Economic & event calendar

Later this week
Upcoming days
  1. 23:30US US Non-Farm Payrolls (Aug)GoldSilverUSD/INR
  2. 23:30US US CPI (Aug)GoldSilverUSD/INR
  3. 23:30US FOMC Rate Decision + Powell Presser (SEP)All marketsGoldSilver
  4. 23:30US US Non-Farm Payrolls (Sep)GoldSilverUSD/INR

Key currency & commodity news

  1. Bullion19 Aug 2026, 7:29 am IST
    Gold inches higher, focus on Fed minutes

    Gold prices edged up slightly during the early Asian trading session, buoyed by a retreat in U.S. Treasury yields from their recent highs. Market players are now looking ahead to the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes for guidance on upcoming policies. Other precious metals displa

    Economic Times
  2. Currency19 Aug 2026, 7:26 am IST
    Dollar drifts near multi-month lows as Treasury yields ease; Fed minutes awaited

    The U.S. dollar slipped against leading currencies on Wednesday, influenced by a decline in treasury yields from their recent highs. Investors are keenly awaiting the Federal Reserve's minutes, anticipating guidance on interest rate trends. The euro and sterling gained ground sli

    Economic Times
  3. Currency18 Aug 2026, 3:49 pm IST
    RBI’s Forex Deposit U-Turn Exposes Wider Communication Gap - Bloomberg

    RBI’s Forex Deposit U-Turn Exposes Wider Communication Gap  Bloomberg

    Bloomberg
  4. Economic Data19 Aug 2026, 2:06 am IST
    US chip stocks slide as government borrowing costs hit multiyear highs

    Fears over inflation and mounting public debt ignite bond sell-off

    Financial Times
  5. Energy19 Aug 2026, 1:30 am IST
    Does the market know anything about oil?

    US oil reserves are dropping. Will prices skyrocket?

    Financial Times
  6. Economic Data19 Aug 2026, 1:03 am IST
    Soaring diesel prices rip across US economy

    Rising fuel costs threaten new jolt of inflation ahead of November’s midterm elections

    Financial Times

Five things to know in currency & commodities today

  1. 1
    Gold inches higher, focus on Fed minutes

    Gold prices edged up slightly during the early Asian trading session, buoyed by a retreat in U.S. Treasury yields from their recent highs. Market players are now looking ahead to the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes for guidance on upcoming policies. Other precious metals displa

    Economic Times · 19 Aug 2026, 7:29 am IST
  2. 2
    Dollar drifts near multi-month lows as Treasury yields ease; Fed minutes awaited

    The U.S. dollar slipped against leading currencies on Wednesday, influenced by a decline in treasury yields from their recent highs. Investors are keenly awaiting the Federal Reserve's minutes, anticipating guidance on interest rate trends. The euro and sterling gained ground sli

    Economic Times · 19 Aug 2026, 7:26 am IST
  3. 3
    RBI’s Forex Deposit U-Turn Exposes Wider Communication Gap - Bloomberg

    RBI’s Forex Deposit U-Turn Exposes Wider Communication Gap  Bloomberg

    Bloomberg · 18 Aug 2026, 3:49 pm IST
  4. 4
    US chip stocks slide as government borrowing costs hit multiyear highs

    Fears over inflation and mounting public debt ignite bond sell-off

    Financial Times · 19 Aug 2026, 2:06 am IST
  5. 5
    Does the market know anything about oil?

    US oil reserves are dropping. Will prices skyrocket?

    Financial Times · 19 Aug 2026, 1:30 am IST

Previous Currency & Commodity Briefings

Daily 08:00 IST snapshots — permanent archive links.