Market Analysis

Currency & Commodity Briefing

Daily USD/INR, gold, silver, crude oil and natural-gas outlook for Indian traders, importers and exporters.

Data as of Powered by liveworldmarket.com
Archive snapshot · 2026-08-14

You are viewing the frozen 08:00 IST briefing from . Verdict: Rupee under pressure; bullion under pressure; energy weak. Live values will not change on this page.

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Market verdict
Rupee under pressure; bullion under pressure; energy weak

The dashboard reflects USD/INR +0.26%, Gold -0.85%, Silver -2.42%, Brent -2.56%, WTI -2.89%, Nat Gas -2.10%.

USD/INR +0.26%Gold -0.85%Silver -2.42%Brent -2.56%WTI -2.89%Nat Gas -2.10%
USD / INR (near-month future)
95.37
0.25 (0.26%)
Prev close
95.12
Day high
Day low
Source
NSE / Upstox
Gold
4,371.20USD/oz
-37.70 (-0.86%)
MCX Gold ₹/10g
1,53,373
MCX change %
-0.97%
Prev close
4,408.90
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Silver
63.97USD/oz
-1.59 (-2.43%)
MCX Silver ₹/kg
2,35,850
MCX change %
-0.83%
Gold/Silver
68.33
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Crude oil
86.70USD/bbl (Brent)
-2.28 (-2.56%)
WTI
80.86
MCX ₹/bbl
7,811
Brent-WTI
5.84
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Natural gas
2.74USD/MMBtu
-0.06 (-2.10%)
MCX ₹/MMBtu
260.6
MCX change %
-2.80%
Prev close
2.80
Source
Yahoo / Upstox

Cross pairs

EUR / INR
110.1156
0.27%
GBP / INR
128.7355
0.04%
JPY / INR
0.5986
0.12%
EUR / USD
1.1500
0.09%
GBP / USD
1.3500
-0.03%

Importer & exporter impact

Importer sensitivity
USD payment cost
mildly adverse
Crude / energy cost
supportive
Bullion procurement
supportive
Nat-gas cost
supportive

A ₹0.10 change in USD/INR alters a USD 1,00,000 payment by ≈ ₹10,000 before bank spreads and charges.

Exporter sensitivity
USD realisation
mildly supportive
EUR realisation
neutral
GBP realisation
neutral

Impact reflects USD/INR direction and EUR/USD, GBP/USD cross moves. Not a hedging recommendation.

Business typeRelevant instrumentsToday's sensitivity
Oil importersBrent, WTI, USD/INRsupportive
AirlinesCrude oil, USD/INRsupportive
Paint companiesCrude derivatives, USD/INRsupportive
JewellersGold, Silver, USD/INRsupportive
Fertiliser companiesNatural gas, USD/INRsupportive
IT exportersUSD/INRmildly supportive
Textile exportersUSD/INR, EUR/USDmildly supportive
Metal usersSilver, USD/INRsupportive

USD / INR — detailed analysis

Near-month future
Price
95.3700
Change
0.2500
% change
0.26%
Prev close
95.1200
Source
NSE / Upstox
Drivers
  • USD/INR is trading higher at 95.37 (+0.26%).
  • Brent crude is lower; softer crude prices are broadly rupee-supportive.
Technical scenarios
Current 95.37 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
95.62
Prev low
94.87
Prev close
95.12
Pivot
95.20
S1
94.79
S2
94.45
R1
95.54
R2
95.95
Sustained trading above 95.5367 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 94.7867 and 95.5367 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 94.7867 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Gold — detailed analysis

Gold/Silver ratio: 68.33
International
4,371.20
% change (intl)
-0.86%
MCX Gold ₹/10g
1,53,373
MCX % change
-0.97%
Prev close
4,408.90
MCX Gold Mini
1,52,213
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • International price is lower at 4371.2 (-0.85%).
  • MCX price is lower (-0.97%) — the MCX contract is trading at a discount to the international basis.
  • A higher rupee (+0.26%) is supporting the rupee-denominated MCX print.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
-0.86%
USD/INR contribution
0.26%
Residual (basis / timing)
-0.38%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 4,371.20 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
4,446.60
Prev low
4,333.50
Prev close
4,408.90
Pivot
4,396.33
S1
4,346.07
S2
4,283.23
R1
4,459.17
R2
4,509.43
Sustained trading above 4459.1667 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 4346.0667 and 4459.1667 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 4346.0667 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Silver — detailed analysis

Gold/Silver ratio: 68.33
International
63.97
% change (intl)
-2.43%
MCX Silver ₹/kg
2,35,850
MCX % change
-0.83%
Prev close
65.56
MCX Silver Mini
2,36,600
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • International price is lower at 63.97 (-2.42%).
  • MCX price is lower (-0.83%) — the MCX contract is trading at a premium to the international basis.
  • A higher rupee (+0.26%) is supporting the rupee-denominated MCX print.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
-2.43%
USD/INR contribution
0.26%
Residual (basis / timing)
1.34%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 63.97 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
67.15
Prev low
62.38
Prev close
65.56
Pivot
65.03
S1
62.91
S2
60.26
R1
67.68
R2
69.80
Sustained trading above 67.68 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 62.91 and 67.68 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 62.91 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Crude oil — detailed analysis

Brent-WTI spread: 5.84 USD/bbl
Brent
86.70
Brent % change
-2.56%
WTI
80.86
MCX Crude ₹/bbl
7,811
Prev close (Brent)
88.98
MCX % change
-1.48%
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • Brent is lower at 86.7 USD/bbl (-2.56%).
  • WTI is lower (-2.89%), Brent-WTI spread at +5.84 USD/bbl.
  • MCX Crude is lower (-1.48%) — rupee move (USD/INR +0.26%) contributes to the local print.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
-2.56%
USD/INR contribution
0.26%
Residual (basis / timing)
0.82%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 86.70 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
91.26
Prev low
84.42
Prev close
88.98
Pivot
88.22
S1
85.18
S2
81.38
R1
92.02
R2
95.06
Sustained trading above 92.02 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 85.18 and 92.02 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 85.18 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Natural gas — detailed analysis

Henry Hub vs MCX
Henry Hub
2.740
% change (intl)
-2.10%
MCX ₹/MMBtu
260.6
MCX % change
-2.80%
Prev close (HH)
2.800
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • Henry Hub natural gas is lower at 2.74 USD/MMBtu (-2.10%).
  • MCX Natural Gas is lower (-2.80%).
  • USD/INR +0.26% is a supportive tailwind for the rupee-denominated contract.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
-2.10%
USD/INR contribution
0.26%
Residual (basis / timing)
-0.96%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 2.74 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
2.86
Prev low
2.68
Prev close
2.80
Pivot
2.78
S1
2.70
S2
2.60
R1
2.88
R2
2.96
Sustained trading above 2.88 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 2.7 and 2.88 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 2.7 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Currency movement impact calculator

Illustrative only. Excludes bank spreads, forward premia, taxes and transaction charges. Not a hedging recommendation.

At current rate
₹95,37,000
At comparison rate
₹95,87,000
Additional cost
+₹50,000
Per ₹0.10 move
₹10,000
Per 1% move
₹95,370

Economic & event calendar

Later this week
Upcoming days
  1. 23:30US US Non-Farm Payrolls (Aug)GoldSilverUSD/INR
  2. 23:30US US CPI (Aug)GoldSilverUSD/INR
  3. 23:30US FOMC Rate Decision + Powell Presser (SEP)All marketsGoldSilver

Key currency & commodity news

  1. Currency13 Aug 2026, 10:02 am IST
    India’s RBI Turns Upbeat as Worst of Iran War Shock Recedes - Bloomberg

    India’s RBI Turns Upbeat as Worst of Iran War Shock Recedes  Bloomberg

    Bloomberg
  2. Energy14 Aug 2026, 7:47 am IST
    Oil Price Today (August 14): Crude oil dips below $88 despite Trump’s threat to blockade Iran indefinitely. What are experts saying?

    Brent crude futures were down 30 cents, or 0.34%, at $86.77 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 34 cents or 0.42% to $80.92 a barrel. Both benchmarks had dropped more than 2% in the previous session, ending a six-session winning streak for Brent

    Economic Times
  3. Energy14 Aug 2026, 5:46 am IST
    BP joins Big Oil return to post-Maduro Venezuela

    British company among winners of offshore licence less than nine months after US toppled Caracas strongman

    Financial Times
  4. Economic Data14 Aug 2026, 2:51 am IST
    US sells 30-year bonds at highest borrowing costs since 2001

    Yields have jumped amid concerns over mounting public debt and persistently high inflation

    Financial Times

Five things to know in currency & commodities today

  1. 1
    India’s RBI Turns Upbeat as Worst of Iran War Shock Recedes - Bloomberg

    India’s RBI Turns Upbeat as Worst of Iran War Shock Recedes  Bloomberg

    Bloomberg · 13 Aug 2026, 10:02 am IST
  2. 2
    Oil Price Today (August 14): Crude oil dips below $88 despite Trump’s threat to blockade Iran indefinitely. What are experts saying?

    Brent crude futures were down 30 cents, or 0.34%, at $86.77 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 34 cents or 0.42% to $80.92 a barrel. Both benchmarks had dropped more than 2% in the previous session, ending a six-session winning streak for Brent

    Economic Times · 14 Aug 2026, 7:47 am IST
  3. 3
    BP joins Big Oil return to post-Maduro Venezuela

    British company among winners of offshore licence less than nine months after US toppled Caracas strongman

    Financial Times · 14 Aug 2026, 5:46 am IST
  4. 4
    US sells 30-year bonds at highest borrowing costs since 2001

    Yields have jumped amid concerns over mounting public debt and persistently high inflation

    Financial Times · 14 Aug 2026, 2:51 am IST

Previous Currency & Commodity Briefings

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