Market Analysis

Currency & Commodity Briefing

Daily USD/INR, gold, silver, crude oil and natural-gas outlook for Indian traders, importers and exporters.

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Market verdict
Rupee mildly firm; bullion firm; energy mixed

The dashboard reflects USD/INR -0.08%, Gold +3.17%, Silver +6.47%, Brent +0.40%, WTI -0.07%, Nat Gas +0.25%.

USD/INR -0.08%Gold +3.17%Silver +6.47%Brent +0.40%WTI -0.07%Nat Gas +0.25%
USD / INR (near-month future)
95.74
-0.07 (-0.08%)
Prev close
95.82
Day high
Day low
Source
NSE / Upstox
Gold
4,549.00USD/oz
140.00 (3.18%)
MCX Gold ₹/10g
1,58,078
MCX change %
2.47%
Prev close
4,409.00
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Silver
67.22USD/oz
4.09 (6.47%)
MCX Silver ₹/kg
2,36,780
MCX change %
1.88%
Gold/Silver
67.67
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Crude oil
91.99USD/bbl (Brent)
0.37 (0.40%)
WTI
84.62
MCX ₹/bbl
8,155
Brent-WTI
7.37
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Natural gas
2.79USD/MMBtu
0.01 (0.25%)
MCX ₹/MMBtu
270.8
MCX change %
2.27%
Prev close
2.78
Source
Yahoo / Upstox

Cross pairs

EUR / INR
111.8122
1.02%
GBP / INR
130.2400
0.70%
JPY / INR
0.6041
0.82%
EUR / USD
1.1700
-0.02%
GBP / USD
1.3600
0.00%

Importer & exporter impact

Importer sensitivity
USD payment cost
neutral
Crude / energy cost
mildly adverse
Bullion procurement
adverse
Nat-gas cost
mildly adverse

A ₹0.10 change in USD/INR alters a USD 1,00,000 payment by ≈ ₹10,000 before bank spreads and charges.

Exporter sensitivity
USD realisation
neutral
EUR realisation
neutral
GBP realisation
neutral

Impact reflects USD/INR direction and EUR/USD, GBP/USD cross moves. Not a hedging recommendation.

Business typeRelevant instrumentsToday's sensitivity
Oil importersBrent, WTI, USD/INRmildly adverse
AirlinesCrude oil, USD/INRmildly adverse
Paint companiesCrude derivatives, USD/INRmildly adverse
JewellersGold, Silver, USD/INRadverse
Fertiliser companiesNatural gas, USD/INRmildly adverse
IT exportersUSD/INRneutral
Textile exportersUSD/INR, EUR/USDneutral
Metal usersSilver, USD/INRadverse

USD / INR — detailed analysis

Near-month future
Price
95.7430
Change
-0.0734
% change
-0.08%
Prev close
95.8164
Source
NSE / Upstox
Drivers
  • USD/INR is trading lower at 95.743 (-0.08%).
  • Brent crude is higher; crude oil is broadly steady, limiting its impact on the rupee.
Technical scenarios
Current 95.74 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
95.89
Prev low
95.67
Prev close
95.82
Pivot
95.79
S1
95.69
S2
95.57
R1
95.91
R2
96.01
Sustained trading above 95.9143 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 95.6941 and 95.9143 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 95.6941 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Gold — detailed analysis

Gold/Silver ratio: 67.67
International
4,549.00
% change (intl)
3.18%
MCX Gold ₹/10g
1,58,078
MCX % change
2.47%
Prev close
4,409.00
MCX Gold Mini
1,56,636
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • International price is higher at 4549.0 (+3.17%).
  • MCX price is higher (+2.47%) — the MCX contract is trading at a discount to the international basis.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
3.18%
USD/INR contribution
-0.08%
Residual (basis / timing)
-0.62%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 4,549.00 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
4,689.00
Prev low
4,269.00
Prev close
4,409.00
Pivot
4,455.67
S1
4,222.33
S2
4,035.67
R1
4,642.33
R2
4,875.67
Sustained trading above 4642.3333 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 4222.3333 and 4642.3333 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 4222.3333 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Silver — detailed analysis

Gold/Silver ratio: 67.67
International
67.22
% change (intl)
6.47%
MCX Silver ₹/kg
2,36,780
MCX % change
1.88%
Prev close
63.13
MCX Silver Mini
2,37,960
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • International price is higher at 67.22 (+6.47%).
  • MCX price is higher (+1.88%) — the MCX contract is trading at a discount to the international basis.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
6.47%
USD/INR contribution
-0.08%
Residual (basis / timing)
-4.52%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 67.22 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
71.31
Prev low
59.04
Prev close
63.13
Pivot
64.49
S1
57.68
S2
52.22
R1
69.95
R2
76.76
Sustained trading above 69.9467 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 57.6767 and 69.9467 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 57.6767 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Crude oil — detailed analysis

Brent-WTI spread: 7.37 USD/bbl
Brent
91.99
Brent % change
0.40%
WTI
84.62
MCX Crude ₹/bbl
8,155
Prev close (Brent)
91.62
MCX % change
0.83%
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • Brent is higher at 91.99 USD/bbl (+0.40%).
  • WTI is lower (-0.07%), Brent-WTI spread at +7.37 USD/bbl.
  • MCX Crude is higher (+0.83%) — rupee move (USD/INR -0.08%) contributes to the local print.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
0.40%
USD/INR contribution
-0.08%
Residual (basis / timing)
0.50%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 91.99 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
92.36
Prev low
91.25
Prev close
91.62
Pivot
91.74
S1
91.13
S2
90.63
R1
92.24
R2
92.85
Sustained trading above 92.2367 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 91.1267 and 92.2367 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 91.1267 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Natural gas — detailed analysis

Henry Hub vs MCX
Henry Hub
2.790
% change (intl)
0.25%
MCX ₹/MMBtu
270.8
MCX % change
2.27%
Prev close (HH)
2.780
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • Henry Hub natural gas is higher at 2.79 USD/MMBtu (+0.25%).
  • MCX Natural Gas is higher (+2.27%).
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
0.25%
USD/INR contribution
-0.08%
Residual (basis / timing)
2.09%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 2.79 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
2.80
Prev low
2.77
Prev close
2.78
Pivot
2.78
S1
2.77
S2
2.75
R1
2.80
R2
2.81
Sustained trading above 2.7967 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 2.7667 and 2.7967 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 2.7667 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Currency movement impact calculator

Illustrative only. Excludes bank spreads, forward premia, taxes and transaction charges. Not a hedging recommendation.

At current rate
₹95,74,300
At comparison rate
₹96,24,300
Additional cost
+₹50,000
Per ₹0.10 move
₹10,000
Per 1% move
₹95,743

Economic & event calendar

Later this week
Upcoming days
  1. 23:30US US Non-Farm Payrolls (Aug)GoldSilverUSD/INR
  2. 23:30US US CPI (Aug)GoldSilverUSD/INR
  3. 23:30US FOMC Rate Decision + Powell Presser (SEP)All marketsGoldSilver
  4. 23:30US US Non-Farm Payrolls (Sep)GoldSilverUSD/INR

Key currency & commodity news

  1. Currency19 Aug 2026, 7:21 pm IST
    RBI Panel Watches Inflation as One Member Eyes Hike This Year - Bloomberg.com

    RBI Panel Watches Inflation as One Member Eyes Hike This Year  Bloomberg.com

    Bloomberg
  2. Currency20 Aug 2026, 7:30 am IST
    Gold hovers near early-June high on lower bond yields

    Gold prices soared close to a two-month peak on Thursday after the U.S. Treasury announced bolstered liquidity measures. With yields falling and the dollar weakening, gold became increasingly attractive to investors. This move comes in light of persistent inflation fears and loom

    Economic Times
  3. Energy20 Aug 2026, 7:26 am IST
    Oil prices steady as investors assess US-Iran war outlook

    Oil prices stabilized as market participants evaluated the potential implications of the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict. Shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz faced disruptions due to rising tensions in the region. Last week's data revealed an increase in crude and gasoline inven

    Economic Times
  4. Geopolitics19 Aug 2026, 10:04 am IST
    India’s Exports to US Hold Firm After a Year of Trump’s Tariffs - Bloomberg.com

    India’s Exports to US Hold Firm After a Year of Trump’s Tariffs  Bloomberg.com

    Bloomberg
  5. Currency20 Aug 2026, 7:28 am IST
    Dollar hugs three-month lows as Treasury seeks to sooth the bond market

    On Thursday, the U.S. dollar faced notable declines, approaching its lowest point in three months. In a bid to stabilize the bond market, U.S. Treasury disclosed plans to double its buyback operations. Meanwhile, long-end Treasury yields fell from a nineteen-year peak. Meeting mi

    Economic Times

Five things to know in currency & commodities today

  1. 1
    RBI Panel Watches Inflation as One Member Eyes Hike This Year - Bloomberg.com

    RBI Panel Watches Inflation as One Member Eyes Hike This Year  Bloomberg.com

    Bloomberg · 19 Aug 2026, 7:21 pm IST
  2. 2
    Gold hovers near early-June high on lower bond yields

    Gold prices soared close to a two-month peak on Thursday after the U.S. Treasury announced bolstered liquidity measures. With yields falling and the dollar weakening, gold became increasingly attractive to investors. This move comes in light of persistent inflation fears and loom

    Economic Times · 20 Aug 2026, 7:30 am IST
  3. 3
    Oil prices steady as investors assess US-Iran war outlook

    Oil prices stabilized as market participants evaluated the potential implications of the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict. Shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz faced disruptions due to rising tensions in the region. Last week's data revealed an increase in crude and gasoline inven

    Economic Times · 20 Aug 2026, 7:26 am IST
  4. 4
    India’s Exports to US Hold Firm After a Year of Trump’s Tariffs - Bloomberg.com

    India’s Exports to US Hold Firm After a Year of Trump’s Tariffs  Bloomberg.com

    Bloomberg · 19 Aug 2026, 10:04 am IST
  5. 5
    Dollar hugs three-month lows as Treasury seeks to sooth the bond market

    On Thursday, the U.S. dollar faced notable declines, approaching its lowest point in three months. In a bid to stabilize the bond market, U.S. Treasury disclosed plans to double its buyback operations. Meanwhile, long-end Treasury yields fell from a nineteen-year peak. Meeting mi

    Economic Times · 20 Aug 2026, 7:28 am IST

Previous Currency & Commodity Briefings

Daily 08:00 IST snapshots — permanent archive links.