Market Analysis

Currency & Commodity Briefing

Daily USD/INR, gold, silver, crude oil and natural-gas outlook for Indian traders, importers and exporters.

Data as of Powered by liveworldmarket.com
Archive snapshot · 2026-08-12

You are viewing the frozen 08:00 IST briefing from . Verdict: Rupee firm; bullion firm; energy firm. Live values will not change on this page.

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Market verdict
Rupee firm; bullion firm; energy firm

The dashboard reflects USD/INR -1.05%, Gold +2.29%, Silver +0.34%, Brent +1.96%, WTI +2.08%, Nat Gas -1.22%.

USD/INR -1.05%Gold +2.29%Silver +0.34%Brent +1.96%WTI +2.08%Nat Gas -1.22%
USD / INR (near-month future)
94.35
-1.00 (-1.05%)
Prev close
95.35
Day high
Day low
Source
NSE / Upstox
Gold
4,461.90USD/oz
100.10 (2.30%)
MCX Gold ₹/10g
1,53,639
MCX change %
0.35%
Prev close
4,361.80
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Silver
65.32USD/oz
0.22 (0.34%)
MCX Silver ₹/kg
2,35,250
MCX change %
-0.68%
Gold/Silver
68.31
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Crude oil
89.44USD/bbl (Brent)
1.72 (1.96%)
WTI
83.84
MCX ₹/bbl
7,943
Brent-WTI
5.60
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Natural gas
2.76USD/MMBtu
-0.03 (-1.22%)
MCX ₹/MMBtu
265.5
MCX change %
-0.34%
Prev close
2.79
Source
Yahoo / Upstox

Cross pairs

EUR / INR
110.1228
0.17%
GBP / INR
128.8514
-0.01%
JPY / INR
0.5986
0.03%
EUR / USD
1.1500
-0.04%
GBP / USD
1.3500
-0.03%

Importer & exporter impact

Importer sensitivity
USD payment cost
supportive
Crude / energy cost
adverse
Bullion procurement
adverse
Nat-gas cost
supportive

A ₹0.10 change in USD/INR alters a USD 1,00,000 payment by ≈ ₹10,000 before bank spreads and charges.

Exporter sensitivity
USD realisation
adverse
EUR realisation
neutral
GBP realisation
neutral

Impact reflects USD/INR direction and EUR/USD, GBP/USD cross moves. Not a hedging recommendation.

Business typeRelevant instrumentsToday's sensitivity
Oil importersBrent, WTI, USD/INRadverse
AirlinesCrude oil, USD/INRadverse
Paint companiesCrude derivatives, USD/INRadverse
JewellersGold, Silver, USD/INRadverse
Fertiliser companiesNatural gas, USD/INRsupportive
IT exportersUSD/INRadverse
Textile exportersUSD/INR, EUR/USDadverse
Metal usersSilver, USD/INRadverse

USD / INR — detailed analysis

Near-month future
Price
94.3500
Change
-1.0000
% change
-1.05%
Prev close
95.3500
Source
NSE / Upstox
Drivers
  • USD/INR is trading lower at 94.35 (-1.05%).
  • Brent crude is higher; elevated crude prices weigh on the rupee.
Technical scenarios
Current 94.35 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
96.35
Prev low
93.35
Prev close
95.35
Pivot
95.02
S1
93.68
S2
92.02
R1
96.68
R2
98.02
Sustained trading above 96.6833 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 93.6833 and 96.6833 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 93.6833 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Gold — detailed analysis

Gold/Silver ratio: 68.31
International
4,461.90
% change (intl)
2.30%
MCX Gold ₹/10g
1,53,639
MCX % change
0.35%
Prev close
4,361.80
MCX Gold Mini
1,52,410
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • International price is higher at 4461.9 (+2.29%).
  • MCX price is higher (+0.35%) — the MCX contract is trading at a discount to the international basis.
  • A lower rupee (-1.05%) is weighing on the rupee-denominated MCX print.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
2.30%
USD/INR contribution
-1.05%
Residual (basis / timing)
-0.89%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 4,461.90 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
4,562.00
Prev low
4,261.70
Prev close
4,361.80
Pivot
4,395.17
S1
4,228.33
S2
4,094.87
R1
4,528.63
R2
4,695.47
Sustained trading above 4528.6333 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 4228.3333 and 4528.6333 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 4228.3333 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Silver — detailed analysis

Gold/Silver ratio: 68.31
International
65.32
% change (intl)
0.34%
MCX Silver ₹/kg
2,35,250
MCX % change
-0.68%
Prev close
65.11
MCX Silver Mini
2,36,600
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • International price is higher at 65.32 (+0.34%).
  • MCX price is lower (-0.68%) — the local basis is broadly aligned with the international print.
  • A lower rupee (-1.05%) is weighing on the rupee-denominated MCX print.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
0.34%
USD/INR contribution
-1.05%
Residual (basis / timing)
0.03%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 65.32 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
65.53
Prev low
64.90
Prev close
65.11
Pivot
65.18
S1
64.83
S2
64.55
R1
65.46
R2
65.81
Sustained trading above 65.46 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 64.83 and 65.46 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 64.83 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Crude oil — detailed analysis

Brent-WTI spread: 5.6 USD/bbl
Brent
89.44
Brent % change
1.96%
WTI
83.84
MCX Crude ₹/bbl
7,943
Prev close (Brent)
87.72
MCX % change
1.79%
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • Brent is higher at 89.44 USD/bbl (+1.96%).
  • WTI is higher (+2.08%), Brent-WTI spread at +5.60 USD/bbl.
  • MCX Crude is higher (+1.79%) — rupee move (USD/INR -1.05%) contributes to the local print.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
1.96%
USD/INR contribution
-1.05%
Residual (basis / timing)
0.88%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 89.44 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
91.16
Prev low
86.00
Prev close
87.72
Pivot
88.29
S1
85.43
S2
83.13
R1
90.59
R2
93.45
Sustained trading above 90.5867 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 85.4267 and 90.5867 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 85.4267 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Natural gas — detailed analysis

Henry Hub vs MCX
Henry Hub
2.760
% change (intl)
-1.22%
MCX ₹/MMBtu
265.5
MCX % change
-0.34%
Prev close (HH)
2.790
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • Henry Hub natural gas is lower at 2.76 USD/MMBtu (-1.22%).
  • MCX Natural Gas is lower (-0.34%).
  • USD/INR -1.05% is a headwind for the rupee-denominated contract.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
-1.22%
USD/INR contribution
-1.05%
Residual (basis / timing)
1.93%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 2.76 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
2.82
Prev low
2.73
Prev close
2.79
Pivot
2.78
S1
2.74
S2
2.69
R1
2.83
R2
2.87
Sustained trading above 2.83 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 2.74 and 2.83 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 2.74 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Currency movement impact calculator

Illustrative only. Excludes bank spreads, forward premia, taxes and transaction charges. Not a hedging recommendation.

At current rate
₹94,35,000
At comparison rate
₹94,85,000
Additional cost
+₹50,000
Per ₹0.10 move
₹10,000
Per 1% move
₹94,350

Economic & event calendar

After Indian close
After 23:30 IST
  1. 23:30US US CPI (Jul)GoldSilverUSD/INR
Later this week
Upcoming days
  1. 23:30US US Non-Farm Payrolls (Aug)GoldSilverUSD/INR
  2. 23:30US US CPI (Aug)GoldSilverUSD/INR
  3. 23:30US FOMC Rate Decision + Powell Presser (SEP)All marketsGoldSilver

Key currency & commodity news

  1. Currency12 Aug 2026, 7:28 am IST
    Dollar subdued as markets await US inflation data for Fed clues

    As Asian markets greeted Wednesday, the dollar maintained its steadiness. Currency investors eagerly anticipated key inflation data from the United States to gauge interest rate shifts. In response to assaults on shipping routes, oil prices experienced a modest rise. Meanwhile, t

    Economic Times
  2. Bullion12 Aug 2026, 7:36 am IST
    Gold firms below 10-week high as markets brace for US CPI data

    Gold prices experienced a notable increase on Wednesday as market participants anticipated essential inflation data. Worries about oil-induced inflation, stemming from unrest in the Middle East, kept the markets on edge. In light of recent job reports, traders lowered their predi

    Economic Times
  3. Currency11 Aug 2026, 12:50 pm IST
    BRICS nations discuss linking payment systems and CBDCs, RBI chief says - Reuters

    BRICS nations discuss linking payment systems and CBDCs, RBI chief says  Reuters

    Reuters
  4. Energy12 Aug 2026, 7:18 am IST
    Oil rises as doubts over US-Iran deal heighten supply concerns

    Oil prices increased Wednesday morning due to Middle East supply worries. Attacks on ships fueled concerns about disruptions in vital shipping lanes. Hopes for a US-Iran peace deal began to fade, impacting market sentiment. US crude inventories unexpectedly rose, which could ease

    Economic Times
  5. Energy11 Aug 2026, 5:50 pm IST
    Volatility tumbles as markets shrug off Middle East risks

    Investors warn of complacency as Vix ‘fear gauge’ falls to prewar levels even as oil rises back to about $90 a barrel

    Financial Times
  6. Currency11 Aug 2026, 4:31 pm IST
    State Bank of India returns to dollar debt market, bankers see strong demand - Reuters

    State Bank of India returns to dollar debt market, bankers see strong demand  Reuters

    Reuters

Five things to know in currency & commodities today

  1. 1
    Dollar subdued as markets await US inflation data for Fed clues

    As Asian markets greeted Wednesday, the dollar maintained its steadiness. Currency investors eagerly anticipated key inflation data from the United States to gauge interest rate shifts. In response to assaults on shipping routes, oil prices experienced a modest rise. Meanwhile, t

    Economic Times · 12 Aug 2026, 7:28 am IST
  2. 2
    Gold firms below 10-week high as markets brace for US CPI data

    Gold prices experienced a notable increase on Wednesday as market participants anticipated essential inflation data. Worries about oil-induced inflation, stemming from unrest in the Middle East, kept the markets on edge. In light of recent job reports, traders lowered their predi

    Economic Times · 12 Aug 2026, 7:36 am IST
  3. 3
    BRICS nations discuss linking payment systems and CBDCs, RBI chief says - Reuters

    BRICS nations discuss linking payment systems and CBDCs, RBI chief says  Reuters

    Reuters · 11 Aug 2026, 12:50 pm IST
  4. 4
    Oil rises as doubts over US-Iran deal heighten supply concerns

    Oil prices increased Wednesday morning due to Middle East supply worries. Attacks on ships fueled concerns about disruptions in vital shipping lanes. Hopes for a US-Iran peace deal began to fade, impacting market sentiment. US crude inventories unexpectedly rose, which could ease

    Economic Times · 12 Aug 2026, 7:18 am IST
  5. 5
    Volatility tumbles as markets shrug off Middle East risks

    Investors warn of complacency as Vix ‘fear gauge’ falls to prewar levels even as oil rises back to about $90 a barrel

    Financial Times · 11 Aug 2026, 5:50 pm IST

Previous Currency & Commodity Briefings

Daily 08:00 IST snapshots — permanent archive links.