Market Analysis

Currency & Commodity Briefing

Daily USD/INR, gold, silver, crude oil and natural-gas outlook for Indian traders, importers and exporters.

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Market verdict
Rupee under pressure; bullion mildly firm; energy weak

The dashboard reflects USD/INR +0.82%, Gold +0.19%, Silver +0.30%, Brent -1.27%, WTI -2.55%, Nat Gas +0.65%.

USD/INR +0.82%Gold +0.19%Silver +0.30%Brent -1.27%WTI -2.55%Nat Gas +0.65%
USD / INR (near-month future)
95.12
0.77 (0.82%)
Prev close
94.35
Day high
Day low
Source
NSE / Upstox
Gold
4,470.30USD/oz
8.50 (0.19%)
MCX Gold ₹/10g
1,54,878
MCX change %
0.72%
Prev close
4,461.80
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Silver
65.75USD/oz
0.19 (0.30%)
MCX Silver ₹/kg
2,37,800
MCX change %
0.91%
Gold/Silver
67.99
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Crude oil
87.85USD/bbl (Brent)
-1.13 (-1.27%)
WTI
82.10
MCX ₹/bbl
7,932
Brent-WTI
5.75
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Natural gas
2.79USD/MMBtu
0.02 (0.65%)
MCX ₹/MMBtu
267.6
MCX change %
0.83%
Prev close
2.77
Source
Yahoo / Upstox

Cross pairs

EUR / INR
109.8624
-0.20%
GBP / INR
128.5656
-0.22%
JPY / INR
0.5978
-0.16%
EUR / USD
1.1500
-0.04%
GBP / USD
1.3500
-0.05%

Importer & exporter impact

Importer sensitivity
USD payment cost
adverse
Crude / energy cost
supportive
Bullion procurement
mildly adverse
Nat-gas cost
adverse

A ₹0.10 change in USD/INR alters a USD 1,00,000 payment by ≈ ₹10,000 before bank spreads and charges.

Exporter sensitivity
USD realisation
supportive
EUR realisation
neutral
GBP realisation
neutral

Impact reflects USD/INR direction and EUR/USD, GBP/USD cross moves. Not a hedging recommendation.

Business typeRelevant instrumentsToday's sensitivity
Oil importersBrent, WTI, USD/INRsupportive
AirlinesCrude oil, USD/INRsupportive
Paint companiesCrude derivatives, USD/INRsupportive
JewellersGold, Silver, USD/INRmildly adverse
Fertiliser companiesNatural gas, USD/INRadverse
IT exportersUSD/INRsupportive
Textile exportersUSD/INR, EUR/USDsupportive
Metal usersSilver, USD/INRmildly adverse

USD / INR — detailed analysis

Near-month future
Price
95.1200
Change
0.7700
% change
0.82%
Prev close
94.3500
Source
NSE / Upstox
Drivers
  • USD/INR is trading higher at 95.12 (+0.82%).
  • Brent crude is lower; softer crude prices are broadly rupee-supportive.
Technical scenarios
Current 95.12 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
95.89
Prev low
93.58
Prev close
94.35
Pivot
94.61
S1
93.32
S2
92.30
R1
95.63
R2
96.92
Sustained trading above 95.6333 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 93.3233 and 95.6333 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 93.3233 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Gold — detailed analysis

Gold/Silver ratio: 67.99
International
4,470.30
% change (intl)
0.19%
MCX Gold ₹/10g
1,54,878
MCX % change
0.72%
Prev close
4,461.80
MCX Gold Mini
1,53,620
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • International price is higher at 4470.3 (+0.19%).
  • MCX price is higher (+0.72%) — the MCX contract is trading at a discount to the international basis.
  • A higher rupee (+0.82%) is supporting the rupee-denominated MCX print.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
0.19%
USD/INR contribution
0.82%
Residual (basis / timing)
-0.28%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 4,470.30 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
4,478.80
Prev low
4,453.30
Prev close
4,461.80
Pivot
4,464.63
S1
4,450.47
S2
4,439.13
R1
4,475.97
R2
4,490.13
Sustained trading above 4475.9667 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 4450.4667 and 4475.9667 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 4450.4667 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Silver — detailed analysis

Gold/Silver ratio: 67.99
International
65.75
% change (intl)
0.30%
MCX Silver ₹/kg
2,37,800
MCX % change
0.91%
Prev close
65.56
MCX Silver Mini
2,38,620
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • International price is higher at 65.75 (+0.30%).
  • MCX price is higher (+0.91%) — the MCX contract is trading at a discount to the international basis.
  • A higher rupee (+0.82%) is supporting the rupee-denominated MCX print.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
0.30%
USD/INR contribution
0.82%
Residual (basis / timing)
-0.20%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 65.75 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
65.94
Prev low
65.37
Prev close
65.56
Pivot
65.62
S1
65.31
S2
65.05
R1
65.88
R2
66.19
Sustained trading above 65.8767 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 65.3067 and 65.8767 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 65.3067 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Crude oil — detailed analysis

Brent-WTI spread: 5.75 USD/bbl
Brent
87.85
Brent % change
-1.27%
WTI
82.10
MCX Crude ₹/bbl
7,932
Prev close (Brent)
88.98
MCX % change
-0.10%
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • Brent is lower at 87.85 USD/bbl (-1.27%).
  • WTI is lower (-2.55%), Brent-WTI spread at +5.75 USD/bbl.
  • MCX Crude is lower (-0.10%) — rupee move (USD/INR +0.82%) contributes to the local print.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
-1.27%
USD/INR contribution
0.82%
Residual (basis / timing)
0.35%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 87.85 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
90.11
Prev low
86.72
Prev close
88.98
Pivot
88.60
S1
87.10
S2
85.21
R1
90.49
R2
91.99
Sustained trading above 90.4867 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 87.0967 and 90.4867 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 87.0967 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Natural gas — detailed analysis

Henry Hub vs MCX
Henry Hub
2.790
% change (intl)
0.65%
MCX ₹/MMBtu
267.6
MCX % change
0.83%
Prev close (HH)
2.770
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • Henry Hub natural gas is higher at 2.79 USD/MMBtu (+0.65%).
  • MCX Natural Gas is higher (+0.83%).
  • USD/INR +0.82% is a supportive tailwind for the rupee-denominated contract.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
0.65%
USD/INR contribution
0.82%
Residual (basis / timing)
-0.64%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 2.79 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
2.81
Prev low
2.75
Prev close
2.77
Pivot
2.78
S1
2.74
S2
2.72
R1
2.80
R2
2.84
Sustained trading above 2.8033 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 2.7433 and 2.8033 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 2.7433 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Currency movement impact calculator

Illustrative only. Excludes bank spreads, forward premia, taxes and transaction charges. Not a hedging recommendation.

At current rate
₹95,12,000
At comparison rate
₹95,62,000
Additional cost
+₹50,000
Per ₹0.10 move
₹10,000
Per 1% move
₹95,120

Economic & event calendar

Later this week
Upcoming days
  1. 23:30US US Non-Farm Payrolls (Aug)GoldSilverUSD/INR
  2. 23:30US US CPI (Aug)GoldSilverUSD/INR
  3. 23:30US FOMC Rate Decision + Powell Presser (SEP)All marketsGoldSilver

Key currency & commodity news

  1. Bullion13 Aug 2026, 7:31 am IST
    Gold advances as mild US inflation data puts Fed rate hike in doubt

    Gold prices have soared to a two-month peak as consumer inflation in the U.S. showed signs of cooling. This easing in inflation has reduced the likelihood of an immediate interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Financial markets are now looking forward to the upcoming producer

    Economic Times
  2. Currency12 Aug 2026, 6:09 pm IST
    India's inflation accelerates to 4.45%, but unlikely to shift RBI rate outlook - Reuters

    India's inflation accelerates to 4.45%, but unlikely to shift RBI rate outlook  Reuters

    Reuters
  3. Geopolitics12 Aug 2026, 10:10 pm IST
    China is winning the race for the Ice Silk Road

    Melting in the Arctic is unleashing a geopolitical tussle over new trade routes

    Financial Times
  4. Economic Data13 Aug 2026, 7:45 am IST
    Dividend alert! Last day to buy HAL, HPCL, IOC among 40 stocks for dividends. How many do you own?

    Under Sebi’s T+1 settlement cycle, investors need to purchase a company’s shares at least one trading day before the record date to ensure the shares are credited to their demat accounts in time, and they become eligible for the corporate action. Accordingly, today is the last op

    Economic Times
  5. Energy13 Aug 2026, 4:31 am IST
    North Sea oil producers told to speed up well closures

    NSTA has fined one company more than £16mn this year and vows to enforce deadlines

    Financial Times

Five things to know in currency & commodities today

  1. 1
    Gold advances as mild US inflation data puts Fed rate hike in doubt

    Gold prices have soared to a two-month peak as consumer inflation in the U.S. showed signs of cooling. This easing in inflation has reduced the likelihood of an immediate interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Financial markets are now looking forward to the upcoming producer

    Economic Times · 13 Aug 2026, 7:31 am IST
  2. 2
    India's inflation accelerates to 4.45%, but unlikely to shift RBI rate outlook - Reuters

    India's inflation accelerates to 4.45%, but unlikely to shift RBI rate outlook  Reuters

    Reuters · 12 Aug 2026, 6:09 pm IST
  3. 3
    China is winning the race for the Ice Silk Road

    Melting in the Arctic is unleashing a geopolitical tussle over new trade routes

    Financial Times · 12 Aug 2026, 10:10 pm IST
  4. 4
    Dividend alert! Last day to buy HAL, HPCL, IOC among 40 stocks for dividends. How many do you own?

    Under Sebi’s T+1 settlement cycle, investors need to purchase a company’s shares at least one trading day before the record date to ensure the shares are credited to their demat accounts in time, and they become eligible for the corporate action. Accordingly, today is the last op

    Economic Times · 13 Aug 2026, 7:45 am IST
  5. 5
    North Sea oil producers told to speed up well closures

    NSTA has fined one company more than £16mn this year and vows to enforce deadlines

    Financial Times · 13 Aug 2026, 4:31 am IST

Previous Currency & Commodity Briefings

Daily 08:00 IST snapshots — permanent archive links.