Market Analysis

Currency & Commodity Briefing

Daily USD/INR, gold, silver, crude oil and natural-gas outlook for Indian traders, importers and exporters.

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Market verdict
Rupee mildly weaker; bullion mildly firm; energy weak

The dashboard reflects USD/INR +0.21%, Gold +0.44%, Silver +0.51%, Brent -0.66%, WTI -1.72%, Nat Gas -3.21%.

USD/INR +0.21%Gold +0.44%Silver +0.51%Brent -0.66%WTI -1.72%Nat Gas -3.21%
USD / INR (near-month future)
95.95
▲ 0.20 (0.21%)
Prev close
95.74
Day high
—
Day low
—
Source
NSE / Upstox
Gold
4,317.00USD/oz
▲ 19.00 (0.44%)
MCX Gold ₹/10g
1,50,841
MCX change %
-0.30%
Prev close
4,298.00
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Silver
64.33USD/oz
▲ 0.33 (0.51%)
MCX Silver ₹/kg
2,33,905
MCX change %
-0.84%
Gold/Silver
67.11
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Crude oil
105.90USD/bbl (Brent)
▼ -0.70 (-0.66%)
WTI
92.98
MCX ₹/bbl
9,159
Brent-WTI
12.92
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Natural gas
3.26USD/MMBtu
▼ -0.11 (-3.21%)
MCX ₹/MMBtu
313.1
MCX change %
-1.07%
Prev close
3.37
Source
Yahoo / Upstox

Cross pairs

EUR / INR
109.1833
▲ 0.26%
GBP / INR
126.7988
▲ 0.02%
JPY / INR
0.6056
▲ 0.19%
EUR / USD
1.1400
▼ -0.01%
GBP / USD
1.3200
▼ -0.18%

Importer & exporter impact

Importer sensitivity
USD payment cost
mildly adverse
Crude / energy cost
supportive
Bullion procurement
mildly adverse
Nat-gas cost
supportive

A ₹0.10 change in USD/INR alters a USD 1,00,000 payment by ≈ ₹10,000 before bank spreads and charges.

Exporter sensitivity
USD realisation
mildly supportive
EUR realisation
neutral
GBP realisation
mildly adverse

Impact reflects USD/INR direction and EUR/USD, GBP/USD cross moves. Not a hedging recommendation.

Business typeRelevant instrumentsToday's sensitivity
Oil importersBrent, WTI, USD/INRsupportive
AirlinesCrude oil, USD/INRsupportive
Paint companiesCrude derivatives, USD/INRsupportive
JewellersGold, Silver, USD/INRmildly adverse
Fertiliser companiesNatural gas, USD/INRsupportive
IT exportersUSD/INRmildly supportive
Textile exportersUSD/INR, EUR/USDmildly supportive
Metal usersSilver, USD/INRmildly adverse

USD / INR — detailed analysis

Near-month future
Price
95.9450
Change
0.2038
% change
0.21%
Prev close
95.7412
Source
NSE / Upstox
Drivers
  • USD/INR is trading higher at 95.945 (+0.21%).
  • Brent crude is lower; softer crude prices are broadly rupee-supportive.
Technical scenarios
Current 95.95 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
96.15
Prev low
95.54
Prev close
95.74
Pivot
95.81
S1
95.47
S2
95.20
R1
96.08
R2
96.42
Sustained trading above 96.0809 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 95.4695 and 96.0809 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 95.4695 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Gold — detailed analysis

Gold/Silver ratio: 67.11
International
4,317.00
% change (intl)
0.44%
MCX Gold ₹/10g
1,50,841
MCX % change
-0.30%
Prev close
4,298.00
MCX Gold Mini
1,50,717
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • International price is higher at 4317.0 (+0.44%).
  • MCX price is lower (-0.30%) — the MCX contract is trading at a discount to the international basis.
  • A higher rupee (+0.21%) is supporting the rupee-denominated MCX print.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
▲ 0.44%
USD/INR contribution
▲ 0.21%
Residual (basis / timing)
▼ -0.96%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 4,317.00 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
4,336.00
Prev low
4,279.00
Prev close
4,298.00
Pivot
4,304.33
S1
4,272.67
S2
4,247.33
R1
4,329.67
R2
4,361.33
Sustained trading above 4329.6667 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 4272.6667 and 4329.6667 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 4272.6667 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Silver — detailed analysis

Gold/Silver ratio: 67.11
International
64.33
% change (intl)
0.51%
MCX Silver ₹/kg
2,33,905
MCX % change
-0.84%
Prev close
64.00
MCX Silver Mini
2,35,956
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • International price is higher at 64.33 (+0.51%).
  • MCX price is lower (-0.84%) — the MCX contract is trading at a discount to the international basis.
  • A higher rupee (+0.21%) is supporting the rupee-denominated MCX print.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
▲ 0.51%
USD/INR contribution
▲ 0.21%
Residual (basis / timing)
▼ -1.57%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 64.33 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
64.66
Prev low
63.67
Prev close
64.00
Pivot
64.11
S1
63.56
S2
63.12
R1
64.55
R2
65.10
Sustained trading above 64.55 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 63.56 and 64.55 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 63.56 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Crude oil — detailed analysis

Brent-WTI spread: 12.92 USD/bbl
Brent
105.90
Brent % change
-0.66%
WTI
92.98
MCX Crude ₹/bbl
9,159
Prev close (Brent)
106.60
MCX % change
-0.09%
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • Brent is lower at 105.9 USD/bbl (-0.66%).
  • WTI is lower (-1.72%), Brent-WTI spread at +12.92 USD/bbl.
  • MCX Crude is lower (-0.09%) — rupee move (USD/INR +0.21%) contributes to the local print.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
▼ -0.66%
USD/INR contribution
▲ 0.21%
Residual (basis / timing)
▲ 0.36%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 105.90 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
107.30
Prev low
105.20
Prev close
106.60
Pivot
106.37
S1
105.43
S2
104.27
R1
107.53
R2
108.47
Sustained trading above 107.5333 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 105.4333 and 107.5333 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 105.4333 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Natural gas — detailed analysis

Henry Hub vs MCX
Henry Hub
3.260
% change (intl)
-3.21%
MCX ₹/MMBtu
313.1
MCX % change
-1.07%
Prev close (HH)
3.370
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • Henry Hub natural gas is lower at 3.26 USD/MMBtu (-3.21%).
  • MCX Natural Gas is lower (-1.07%).
  • USD/INR +0.21% is a supportive tailwind for the rupee-denominated contract.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
▼ -3.21%
USD/INR contribution
▲ 0.21%
Residual (basis / timing)
▲ 1.92%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 3.26 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
3.48
Prev low
3.15
Prev close
3.37
Pivot
3.33
S1
3.19
S2
3.00
R1
3.52
R2
3.66
Sustained trading above 3.5167 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 3.1867 and 3.5167 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 3.1867 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Currency movement impact calculator

Illustrative only. Excludes bank spreads, forward premia, taxes and transaction charges. Not a hedging recommendation.

At current rate
₹95,94,500
At comparison rate
₹96,44,500
Additional cost
+₹50,000
Per ₹0.10 move
₹10,000
Per 1% move
₹95,945

Economic & event calendar

Later this week
Upcoming days
  1. 23:30US US Non-Farm Payrolls (Sep)GoldSilverUSD/INR
  2. 23:30US US CPI (Sep)GoldSilverUSD/INR
  3. 23:30US FOMC Rate Decision + Powell PresserAll marketsGoldSilver
  4. 23:30US US Non-Farm Payrolls (Oct)GoldSilverUSD/INR

Key currency & commodity news

  1. Currency25 Sept 2026, 7:34 am IST
    Gold heads for weekly decline as dollar firms, Fed rate outlook weighs

    On Friday, gold prices experienced a drop, marking a downward trend for the week due to a robust dollar and ongoing forecasts of elevated interest rates. Spot gold fell by 0.2%, while US gold futures saw a slight uptick. Officials from the Fed suggested that interest rate hikes m

    Economic Times
  2. Energy25 Sept 2026, 7:37 am IST
    Oil Price Today (September 25): Crude oil slips to $105 as truce hopes clash with Middle East attacks. What’s next?

    US and Iranian negotiators in New York are discussing a phased route out of the war that would see Tehran reopen the Strait of Hormuz and Washington lift its economic blockade of Iran, according to multiple reports.

    Economic Times
  3. Energy25 Sept 2026, 7:30 am IST
    Oil prices fall as markets look to Iran truce, but remain wary of attacks on oil facilities

    On Friday, oil prices took a small dip after a week marked by fluctuations. Brent crude prices lowered to $105.85 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate decreased to $93.80 per barrel. This decrease aligns with US and Iranian discussions regarding a ceasefire amidst ongoing mi

    Economic Times
  4. Energy24 Sept 2026, 9:42 pm IST
    US mortgage rates breach 7% as affordability pressures mount

    Surging yields on government bonds and rising oil prices from the war in Iran drive inflation fears as national elections near

    Financial Times
  5. Energy25 Sept 2026, 3:27 am IST
    Shale oil magnate says Exxon chief ‘threw me under the bus’ after $60bn takeover

    Scott Sheffield says supermajor launched ‘smear campaign’ to stop him joining company’s board

    Financial Times
  6. Economic Data25 Sept 2026, 7:28 am IST
    Why bond yields are rising and why everyone should care

    The bond market has witnessed unprecedented yield levels, peaking at heights not seen in two decades, leading to increased borrowing costs for individuals and businesses alike. Rising inflation plays a pivotal role as U.S. Treasury yields climb, pushing mortgage rates upward for

    Economic Times

Five things to know in currency & commodities today

  1. 1
    Gold heads for weekly decline as dollar firms, Fed rate outlook weighs

    On Friday, gold prices experienced a drop, marking a downward trend for the week due to a robust dollar and ongoing forecasts of elevated interest rates. Spot gold fell by 0.2%, while US gold futures saw a slight uptick. Officials from the Fed suggested that interest rate hikes m

    Economic Times · 25 Sept 2026, 7:34 am IST
  2. 2
    Oil Price Today (September 25): Crude oil slips to $105 as truce hopes clash with Middle East attacks. What’s next?

    US and Iranian negotiators in New York are discussing a phased route out of the war that would see Tehran reopen the Strait of Hormuz and Washington lift its economic blockade of Iran, according to multiple reports.

    Economic Times · 25 Sept 2026, 7:37 am IST
  3. 3
    Oil prices fall as markets look to Iran truce, but remain wary of attacks on oil facilities

    On Friday, oil prices took a small dip after a week marked by fluctuations. Brent crude prices lowered to $105.85 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate decreased to $93.80 per barrel. This decrease aligns with US and Iranian discussions regarding a ceasefire amidst ongoing mi

    Economic Times · 25 Sept 2026, 7:30 am IST
  4. 4
    US mortgage rates breach 7% as affordability pressures mount

    Surging yields on government bonds and rising oil prices from the war in Iran drive inflation fears as national elections near

    Financial Times · 24 Sept 2026, 9:42 pm IST
  5. 5
    Shale oil magnate says Exxon chief ‘threw me under the bus’ after $60bn takeover

    Scott Sheffield says supermajor launched ‘smear campaign’ to stop him joining company’s board

    Financial Times · 25 Sept 2026, 3:27 am IST

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