Market Analysis

Currency & Commodity Briefing

Daily USD/INR, gold, silver, crude oil and natural-gas outlook for Indian traders, importers and exporters.

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Market verdict
Rupee under pressure; bullion mildly weak; energy mixed

The dashboard reflects USD/INR +0.28%, Gold -0.20%, Silver -1.08%, Brent +0.08%, WTI +0.45%, Nat Gas -1.10%.

USD/INR +0.28%Gold -0.20%Silver -1.08%Brent +0.08%WTI +0.45%Nat Gas -1.10%
USD / INR (near-month future)
95.09
0.27 (0.28%)
Prev close
94.82
Day high
Day low
Source
NSE / Upstox
Gold
4,451.70USD/oz
-9.00 (-0.20%)
MCX Gold ₹/10g
1,53,721
MCX change %
0.75%
Prev close
4,460.70
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Silver
67.91USD/oz
-0.74 (-1.08%)
MCX Silver ₹/kg
2,44,300
MCX change %
2.04%
Gold/Silver
65.55
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Crude oil
101.29USD/bbl (Brent)
0.08 (0.08%)
WTI
96.48
MCX ₹/bbl
9,118
Brent-WTI
4.81
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Natural gas
2.79USD/MMBtu
-0.03 (-1.10%)
MCX ₹/MMBtu
269.2
MCX change %
-1.86%
Prev close
2.82
Source
Yahoo / Upstox

Cross pairs

EUR / INR
110.6793
0.46%
GBP / INR
128.8732
0.36%
JPY / INR
0.6193
0.31%
EUR / USD
1.1600
0.11%
GBP / USD
1.3600
0.08%

Importer & exporter impact

Importer sensitivity
USD payment cost
mildly adverse
Crude / energy cost
neutral
Bullion procurement
mildly supportive
Nat-gas cost
supportive

A ₹0.10 change in USD/INR alters a USD 1,00,000 payment by ≈ ₹10,000 before bank spreads and charges.

Exporter sensitivity
USD realisation
mildly supportive
EUR realisation
neutral
GBP realisation
neutral

Impact reflects USD/INR direction and EUR/USD, GBP/USD cross moves. Not a hedging recommendation.

Business typeRelevant instrumentsToday's sensitivity
Oil importersBrent, WTI, USD/INRmildly adverse
AirlinesCrude oil, USD/INRmildly adverse
Paint companiesCrude derivatives, USD/INRneutral
JewellersGold, Silver, USD/INRmildly supportive
Fertiliser companiesNatural gas, USD/INRsupportive
IT exportersUSD/INRmildly supportive
Textile exportersUSD/INR, EUR/USDmildly supportive
Metal usersSilver, USD/INRmildly supportive

USD / INR — detailed analysis

Near-month future
Price
95.0900
Change
0.2670
% change
0.28%
Prev close
94.8230
Source
NSE / Upstox
Drivers
  • USD/INR is trading higher at 95.09 (+0.28%).
  • Brent crude is higher; crude oil is broadly steady, limiting its impact on the rupee.
Technical scenarios
Current 95.09 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
95.36
Prev low
94.56
Prev close
94.82
Pivot
94.91
S1
94.47
S2
94.11
R1
95.27
R2
95.71
Sustained trading above 95.268 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 94.467 and 95.268 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 94.467 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Gold — detailed analysis

Gold/Silver ratio: 65.55
International
4,451.70
% change (intl)
-0.20%
MCX Gold ₹/10g
1,53,721
MCX % change
0.75%
Prev close
4,460.70
MCX Gold Mini
1,53,949
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • International price is lower at 4451.7 (-0.20%).
  • MCX price is higher (+0.75%) — the MCX contract is trading at a premium to the international basis.
  • A higher rupee (+0.28%) is supporting the rupee-denominated MCX print.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
-0.20%
USD/INR contribution
0.28%
Residual (basis / timing)
0.67%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 4,451.70 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
4,469.70
Prev low
4,442.70
Prev close
4,460.70
Pivot
4,457.70
S1
4,445.70
S2
4,430.70
R1
4,472.70
R2
4,484.70
Sustained trading above 4472.7 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 4445.7 and 4472.7 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 4445.7 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Silver — detailed analysis

Gold/Silver ratio: 65.55
International
67.91
% change (intl)
-1.08%
MCX Silver ₹/kg
2,44,300
MCX % change
2.04%
Prev close
68.65
MCX Silver Mini
2,45,800
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • International price is lower at 67.91 (-1.08%).
  • MCX price is higher (+2.04%) — the MCX contract is trading at a premium to the international basis.
  • A higher rupee (+0.28%) is supporting the rupee-denominated MCX print.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
-1.08%
USD/INR contribution
0.28%
Residual (basis / timing)
2.84%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 67.91 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
69.39
Prev low
67.17
Prev close
68.65
Pivot
68.40
S1
67.42
S2
66.18
R1
69.64
R2
70.62
Sustained trading above 69.6367 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 67.4167 and 69.6367 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 67.4167 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Crude oil — detailed analysis

Brent-WTI spread: 4.81 USD/bbl
Brent
101.29
Brent % change
0.08%
WTI
96.48
MCX Crude ₹/bbl
9,118
Prev close (Brent)
101.21
MCX % change
4.40%
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • Brent is higher at 101.29 USD/bbl (+0.08%).
  • WTI is higher (+0.45%), Brent-WTI spread at +4.81 USD/bbl.
  • MCX Crude is higher (+4.40%) — rupee move (USD/INR +0.28%) contributes to the local print.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
0.08%
USD/INR contribution
0.28%
Residual (basis / timing)
4.04%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 101.29 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
101.37
Prev low
101.13
Prev close
101.21
Pivot
101.24
S1
101.10
S2
101.00
R1
101.34
R2
101.48
Sustained trading above 101.3433 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 101.1033 and 101.3433 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 101.1033 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Natural gas — detailed analysis

Henry Hub vs MCX
Henry Hub
2.790
% change (intl)
-1.10%
MCX ₹/MMBtu
269.2
MCX % change
-1.86%
Prev close (HH)
2.820
Source
Yahoo / Upstox
Drivers
  • Henry Hub natural gas is lower at 2.79 USD/MMBtu (-1.10%).
  • MCX Natural Gas is lower (-1.86%).
  • USD/INR +0.28% is a supportive tailwind for the rupee-denominated contract.
Why is the MCX price moving differently?
International
-1.10%
USD/INR contribution
0.28%
Residual (basis / timing)
-1.04%

MCX % ≈ international % + USD/INR % + residual (basis, timing, local factors). Indicative only when the two feeds have different intra-day snapshot times.

Technical scenarios
Current 2.79 · Between S1 and R1 — consolidation
Prev high
2.85
Prev low
2.76
Prev close
2.82
Pivot
2.81
S1
2.77
S2
2.72
R1
2.86
R2
2.90
Sustained trading above 2.86 may indicate improving intraday momentum.
Trading between 2.77 and 2.86 indicates consolidation around the pivot.
A sustained move below 2.77 may indicate weakening intraday momentum.

Technical levels are classic pivot points calculated from the previous day's high / low / close. General market reference points — not personalised trading recommendations.

Currency movement impact calculator

Illustrative only. Excludes bank spreads, forward premia, taxes and transaction charges. Not a hedging recommendation.

At current rate
₹95,09,000
At comparison rate
₹95,59,000
Additional cost
+₹50,000
Per ₹0.10 move
₹10,000
Per 1% move
₹95,090

Economic & event calendar

Later this week
Upcoming days
  1. 23:30US US CPI (Aug)GoldSilverUSD/INR
  2. 23:30US FOMC Rate Decision + Powell Presser (SEP)All marketsGoldSilver
  3. 23:30US US Non-Farm Payrolls (Sep)GoldSilverUSD/INR
  4. 23:30US US CPI (Sep)GoldSilverUSD/INR

Key currency & commodity news

  1. Currency9 Sept 2026, 6:20 pm IST
    RBI uses currency swaps to cut $115 bn cash surplus
    Economic Times
  2. Currency9 Sept 2026, 7:54 am IST
    Rupee falls past 95/USD as oil climbs, RBI taps swaps to drain excess cash - reuters.com

    Rupee falls past 95/USD as oil climbs, RBI taps swaps to drain excess cash  reuters.com

    Reuters
  3. Energy10 Sept 2026, 12:49 am IST
    Oil hits $100 for first time since July

    Brent crude advances as escalation in US-Iran war feeds fears of renewed global supply crunch

    Financial Times
  4. Energy10 Sept 2026, 6:33 am IST
    Global Market Today: Asian stocks to fall as oil stokes inflation fears

    Equity-index futures for Japan, South Korea and Australia pointed lower after the S&P 500 Index fell 0.5%, led by industrial and consumer-discretionary shares. The Nasdaq 100 Index dropped 0.3% as Nvidia Corp., Amazon.com Inc. and Alphabet Inc. declined. Contracts for US stoc

    Economic Times
  5. Currency8 Sept 2026, 11:27 pm IST
    India's NSE likely to price IPO at 1,700-1,785 rupees per share, source says - reuters.com

    India's NSE likely to price IPO at 1,700-1,785 rupees per share, source says  reuters.com

    Reuters

Five things to know in currency & commodities today

  1. 1
    RBI uses currency swaps to cut $115 bn cash surplus
    Economic Times · 9 Sept 2026, 6:20 pm IST
  2. 2
    Rupee falls past 95/USD as oil climbs, RBI taps swaps to drain excess cash - reuters.com

    Rupee falls past 95/USD as oil climbs, RBI taps swaps to drain excess cash  reuters.com

    Reuters · 9 Sept 2026, 7:54 am IST
  3. 3
    Oil hits $100 for first time since July

    Brent crude advances as escalation in US-Iran war feeds fears of renewed global supply crunch

    Financial Times · 10 Sept 2026, 12:49 am IST
  4. 4
    Global Market Today: Asian stocks to fall as oil stokes inflation fears

    Equity-index futures for Japan, South Korea and Australia pointed lower after the S&P 500 Index fell 0.5%, led by industrial and consumer-discretionary shares. The Nasdaq 100 Index dropped 0.3% as Nvidia Corp., Amazon.com Inc. and Alphabet Inc. declined. Contracts for US stoc

    Economic Times · 10 Sept 2026, 6:33 am IST
  5. 5
    India's NSE likely to price IPO at 1,700-1,785 rupees per share, source says - reuters.com

    India's NSE likely to price IPO at 1,700-1,785 rupees per share, source says  reuters.com

    Reuters · 8 Sept 2026, 11:27 pm IST

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